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Information flows during the asian crisis: evidence from closed-end funds

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  • Eli M Remolona
  • Benjamin H. Cohen

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

Abstract

A salient feature of the Asian crisis of 1997 was a collapse of stock markets that took place over several months. The dynamics of this collapse raises the question of what information was driving the markets. This paper examines a key aspect of this question: did information flow from the domestic Asian markets to overseas markets, or vice versa? We test for the direction of this information flow by comparing daily returns in several Southeast Asian equity markets with daily returns on US-based closed-end funds that invest in those markets, exploiting the fact that there is no overlap between the trading hours in the two regions. We find that while information flows between local and US markets tended to be roughly evenly balanced before the crisis, US market returns assumed a more important role during the crisis. This is the case both for the level of daily returns and for the volatility of those returns. We also find that fund returns were more closely tied to broad US market returns during the crisis period. This suggests that the shift in causation between the US and Asia reflected a greater role for US market sentiment, rather than for the news that became known during US trading hours.

Suggested Citation

  • Eli M Remolona & Benjamin H. Cohen, 2000. "Information flows during the asian crisis: evidence from closed-end funds," BIS Working Papers 97, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:97
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    Cited by:

    1. Marvin Barth & Eli Remolona & Philip Wooldridge, 2002. "Changes in market functioning and central bank policy: an overview of the issues," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 1-24, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Chang Shu & Dong He & Jinyue Dong & Honglin Wang, 2016. "Regional pull vs global push factors: China and US influence on Asia-Pacific financial markets," BIS Working Papers 579, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Chayawadee Chai-Anant & Corinna Ho, 2008. "Understanding Asian equity flows, market returns and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 245, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Wu, Eliza & Erdem, Magdalena & Kalotychou, Elena & Remolona, Eli, 2016. "The anatomy of sovereign risk contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 264-286.
    5. Shu, Chang & He, Dong & Dong, Jinyue & Wang, Honglin, 2018. "Regional pull vs global push factors: China and US influence on Asian financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 112-132.
    6. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Montshioa, Keitumetse, 2024. "Navigating extreme market fluctuations: asset allocation strategies in developed vs. emerging economies," MPRA Paper 119910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Philip Lowe, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," FMG Discussion Papers dp428, Financial Markets Group.
    8. Chan, Justin S.P. & Jain, Ravi & Xia, Yihong, 2008. "Market segmentation, liquidity spillover, and closed-end country fund discounts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 377-399, November.
    9. Jacob Gyntelberg & Alicia Garcia Herrero & Andrea Tesei, 2008. "The Asian crisis: what did local stock markets expect?," BIS Working Papers 261, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Mr. Gaston Gelos, 2011. "International Mutual Funds, Capital Flow Volatility, and Contagion – A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2011/092, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Gochoco-Bautista, Maria Socorro & Remolona, Eli M., 2012. "Going Regional: How to Deepen ASEAN's Financial Markets," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 300, Asian Development Bank.
    12. Amstad, Marlene & Remolona, Eli & Shek, Jimmy, 2016. "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-48.
    13. Jon Wongswan, 2006. "Transmission of Information across International Equity Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(4), pages 1157-1189.
    14. Stylianos X. Koufadakis, 2016. "Mispricing Explanations of Closed-End Funds: A Survey Review," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 66(1-2), pages 108-135, January-J.
    15. Philip Lowe & Miguel A. Segoviano, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," BIS Working Papers 117, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Segoviano, Miguel A. & Lowe, Philip, 2002. "Internal ratings, the business cycle and capital requirements: some evidence from an emerging market economy," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24948, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    17. Montshioa, Keitumetse & Muteba Mwamba, John Weirstrass & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2021. "Asset allocation in extreme market conditions: a comparative analysis between developed and emerging economies," MPRA Paper 106248, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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