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Hedge Funds and the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997

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  • Stephen J. Brown
  • William N. Goetzmann
  • James Park

Abstract

We test the hypothesis that hedge funds were responsible for the crash in the Asian currencies in late 1997 . To do so, we develop estimates of the changing positions of the largest ten currency funds in one currency, the Malaysian ringgit and to a basket of Asian currencies. Our methodology is adapted from the Sharpe's (1992) style analysis approach that decomposes fund returns. We find that the net long or short positions in the ringgit or its correlates did fluctuate dramatically over the last four years. However, these fluctuations were not associated with moves in the exchange rates. The estimated net positions of the major funds were not unusual during the crash period, nor were the profits of the funds during the crisis. In sum, we find no empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that George Soros, or any other hedge fund manager was responsible for the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & James Park, 1998. "Hedge Funds and the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997," NBER Working Papers 6427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:6427 Note: AP
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    1. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robotti, Paola, 2006. "Hedge funds and financial stability: explaining the debate at the financial stability forum," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24514, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. Arjen Siegmann & Denitsa Stefanova, 2011. "Market Liquidity and Exposure of Hedge Funds," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-150/2/DSF27, Tinbergen Institute.
    3. Patrick M McGuire & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2008. "Estimating hedge fund leverage," BIS Working Papers 260, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Monica Billio & Mila Getmansky & Andrew W. Lo & Loriana Pelizzon, 2010. "Econometric Measures of Systemic Risk in the Finance and Insurance Sectors," NBER Chapters,in: Market Institutions and Financial Market Risk National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Merrick, John J. & Naik, Narayan Y. & Yadav, Pradeep K., 2004. "Strategic trading behavior and price distortion in a manipulated market: Anatomy of a squeeze," CFR Working Papers 04-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    6. Kregel, J A, 1998. "Derivatives and Global Capital Flows: Applications to Asia," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 22(6), pages 677-692, November.
    7. Nicholas Chan & Mila Getmansky & Shane M. Haas & Andrew W. Lo, 2007. "Systemic Risk and Hedge Funds," NBER Chapters,in: The Risks of Financial Institutions, pages 235-338 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Cohen, Benjamin H. & Remolona, Eli M., 2008. "Information flows during the Asian crisis: Evidence from closed-end funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 636-653, June.
    9. Holt, Bryce R. & Irwin, Scott H., 2000. "The Effects Of Futures Trading By Large Hedge Funds And Ctas On Market Volatility," 2000 Conference, April 17-18 2000, Chicago, Illinois 18935, NCR-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    10. Kristin J. Forbes & Menzie D. Chinn, 2004. "A Decomposition of Global Linkages in Financial Markets Over Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 705-722.
    11. William Goetzmann & Jonathan Ingersoll & Matthew I. Spiegel & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Sharpening Sharpe Ratios," NBER Working Papers 9116, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Azman-Saini, W.N.W., 2006. "Hedge funds, exchange rates and causality: Evidence from Thailand and Malaysia," MPRA Paper 716, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Measuring the market impact of hedge funds," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, pages 1-36.
    14. C. Y. Cyrus Chu & Jason J. H. Yeh, 2005. "Insuring Against Self-Fulfilling Financial Crises," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 4(2), pages 123-139, August.
    15. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    16. Izabela Pruchnicka-Grabias, 2014. "The Influence Of Confidence Level, Correlation And Volatility On Value At Risk. Six Case Studies," Interdisciplinary Management Research, Josip Juraj Strossmayer University of Osijek, Faculty of Economics, Croatia, vol. 10, pages 565-581.
    17. Marguerite Schneider & Lori Ryan, 2011. "A review of hedge funds and their investor activism: do they help or hurt other equity investors?," Journal of Management & Governance, Springer;Accademia Italiana di Economia Aziendale (AIDEA), vol. 15(3), pages 349-374, August.
    18. Jomo K.S., 2005. "Malaysia┬┤S September 1998 Controls: Background, Context, Impacts, Comparisons, Implications, Lessons," G-24 Discussion Papers 36, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    19. Herz, Christian & Neunert, Daniela & Will, Sebastian & Wolf, Niko J. & Zwick, Tobias, 2012. "Portfolioallokation: Einbezug verschiedener Assetklassen," Bayreuth Working Papers on Finance, Accounting and Taxation (FAcT-Papers) 2012-01, University of Bayreuth, Chair of Finance and Banking.
    20. Bank for International Settlements, 2001. "Market liquidity: proceedings of a workshop held at the BIS," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 02, June - Se.

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