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Insuring Against Self-Fulfilling Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • C. Y. Cyrus Chu

    (Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taiwan)

  • Jason J. H. Yeh

    (Department of Finance, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

Abstract

This paper proposes an insurance scheme to protect a currency from self-fulfilling financial crises. Treating such crises as catastrophes, the recently developed catastrophe insurance bond (CAT bond) can be adapted and applied. The idea is for the insured currency area to issue bonds with an interest payment higher than market alternatives and relieve the area's debt burden (principal and interest) in case of a catastrophic crisis. There are two purposes behind such a design: first, if a crisis occurs, the area being hit can use the forfeited principal as funds to recover; second and more importantly, the bondholders will have an incentive to defend against the speculative attack causing the crisis because they will themselves want to avoid the forfeiture of their debt principal. We study two typical models with self-fulfilling expectations by Obstfeld (1996) and Krugman (1999) and analyze the resulting equilibrium with and without the CAT bond. It is shown that under some conditions, the insurance scheme can indeed help to reduce the threat of a self-fulfilling financial crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • C. Y. Cyrus Chu & Jason J. H. Yeh, 2005. "Insuring Against Self-Fulfilling Financial Crises," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 4(2), pages 123-139, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijb:journl:v:4:y:2005:i:2:p:123-139
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & James Park, 1998. "Hedge Funds and the Asian Currency Crisis of 1997," NBER Working Papers 6427, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1996. "Models of currency crises with self-fulfilling features," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 1037-1047, April.
    3. John D. Pollner, 2001. "Managing Catastrophic Disaster Risks Using Alternative Risk financing and Pooled Insurance Structures," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13961, December.
    4. Paul Krugman, 1999. "Balance Sheets, the Transfer Problem, and Financial Crises," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 459-472, November.
    5. Froot, Kenneth A., 2001. "The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2-3), pages 529-571, May.
    6. Cummins, J. David & Doherty, Neil & Lo, Anita, 2002. "Can insurers pay for the "big one"? Measuring the capacity of the insurance market to respond to catastrophic losses," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 557-583, March.
    7. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    8. Steven Radelet & Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1998. "The East Asian Financial Crisis: Diagnosis, Remedies, Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(1), pages 1-90.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asian financial crisis; CAT bond; exchange rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G22 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Insurance; Insurance Companies; Actuarial Studies

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