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Strategic Complementarities and the Twin Crises

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  • Itay Goldstein

Abstract

The economic literature emphasised the role of strategic complementarities in generating banking crises and currency crises. Motivated by evidence from recent financial crises, we study a model, where strategic complementarities exist, not only within a group of creditors or within a group of currency speculators, but also between the two groups. The additional type of complementarities generates a vicious circle between banking crises and currency crises. This magnifies the correlation between the two crises and destabilises the economy. We show that, due to the vicious circle, a Lender of Last Resort might not be able to prevent bank runs. Copyright 2005 Royal Economic Society.

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  • Itay Goldstein, 2005. "Strategic Complementarities and the Twin Crises," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 368-390, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:115:y:2005:i:503:p:368-390
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    Cited by:

    1. König, Philipp & Anand, Kartik & Heinemann, Frank, 2014. "Guarantees, transparency and the interdependency between sovereign and bank default risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 321-337.
    2. Goldstein, Itay & Pauzner, Ady, 2004. "Contagion of self-fulfilling financial crises due to diversification of investment portfolios," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 151-183, November.
    3. Goldstein, Itay & Razin, Assaf, 2015. "Three Branches of Theories of Financial Crises," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 10(2), pages 113-180, 30.
    4. Junichi Fujimoto, 2014. "Speculative attacks with multiple targets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 57(1), pages 89-132, September.
    5. Toni Ahnert, 2016. "Rollover Risk, Liquidity and Macroprudential Regulation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1753-1785, December.
    6. Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Jager, Henk & Klaassen, Franc, 2011. "Currency crises with the threat of an interest rate defence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1), pages 14-24, September.
    7. König, Philipp & Anand, Kartik & Heinemann, Frank, 2013. "The ‘Celtic Crisis’: Guarantees, transparency, and systemic liquidity risk," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79747, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Allen, Franklin & Carletti, Elena & Goldstein, Itay & Leonello, Agnese, 2015. "Government Guarantees and Financial Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 10560, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Philipp König & Kartik Anand & Frank Heinemann, 2013. "The ‘Celtic Crisis’: Guarantees, transparency, and systemic liquidity risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-025, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    10. Tijmen Daniëls, 2009. "Unique Equilibrium in a Dynamic Model of Speculative Attacks," De Economist, Springer, vol. 157(4), pages 417-439, December.
    11. repec:eee:mateco:v:73:y:2017:i:c:p:13-33 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Tijmen R. Daniels & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2008. "Defending against Speculative Attacks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-090/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 06 Apr 2009.
    13. repec:eee:jmacro:v:52:y:2017:i:c:p:135-146 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Sumila Tharanga Wanaguru, 2011. "Carry Trades and Financial Crisis: An Analytical Perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2011-33, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    15. Bleaney, Michael & Bougheas, Spiros & Skamnelos, Ilias, 2008. "A model of the interactions between banking crises and currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 695-706, September.
    16. Basteck, Christian & Daniëls, Tijmen R. & Heinemann, Frank, 2013. "Characterising equilibrium selection in global games with strategic complementarities," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(6), pages 2620-2637.
    17. Guimaraes, Bernardo & Pereira, Ana Elisa, 2017. "Dynamic coordination among heterogeneous agents," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 13-33.
    18. Manz, Michael, 2010. "Information-based contagion and the implications for financial fragility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 900-910, October.
    19. Sebastjan Strasek & Timotej Jagric & Natasa Spes, 2007. "Emerging Economies Crises: Lessons from the 1990’," Managing Global Transitions, University of Primorska, Faculty of Management Koper, vol. 5(3), pages 289-304.
    20. Philipp Koenig & David Pothier, 2016. "Information Acquisition and Liquidity Dry-Ups," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2016-045, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    21. Nakata, Takeshi, 2010. "Interdependent bank runs under a collapsing fixed exchange rate regime," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 603-623, December.
    22. Leonello, Agnese, 2017. "Government guarantees and the two-way feedback between banking and sovereign debt crises," Working Paper Series 2067, European Central Bank.
    23. Tai-kuang Ho & Ming-yen Wu, 2012. "Third-person Effect and Financial Contagion in the Context of a Global Game," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 823-846, November.
    24. repec:eee:macchp:v2-1065 is not listed on IDEAS

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