IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/508.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets

Author

Listed:
  • Jhuvesh Sobrun
  • Philip Turner

Abstract

Financial conditions in the emerging markets (EMs) have become more dependent on the 'world' long-term interest rate, which has been driven down by monetary policies in the advanced economies - notably Quantitative Easing (QE) - and by several non-monetary factors. This paper analyses some new mechanisms that link global long-term rates to monetary policy and to domestic bank lending in the EMs. Understanding these mechanisms could help EM central banks prepare for the exit from QE and higher (and perhaps divergent) policy rates in advanced economies. Although monetary policy in the EMs has continued to be guided by domestic objectives, it has nevertheless lost some traction. Difficult trade-offs now confront central banks.

Suggested Citation

  • Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:508
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work508.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/work508.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marco J. Lombardi & Feng Zhu, 2018. "A Shadow Policy Rate to Calibrate U.S. Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 305-346, December.
    2. Philip R. Lane & Peter McQuade, 2014. "Domestic Credit Growth and International Capital Flows," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 116(1), pages 218-252, January.
    3. Dimitri Vayanos & Jean‐Luc Vila, 2021. "A Preferred‐Habitat Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(1), pages 77-112, January.
    4. Lo Duca, Marco & Nicoletti, Giulio & Vidal Martínez, Ariadna, 2016. "Global corporate bond issuance: What role for US quantitative easing?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 114-150.
    5. Madhusudan Mohanty, 2014. "The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets - An overview," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 1-24, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Ken Miyajima & Madhusudan Mohanty & James Yetman, 2014. "Spillovers of US unconventional monetary policy to Asia: the role of long-term interest rates," BIS Working Papers 478, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Francisco Covas & John C. Driscoll & Mohammad Jahan-Parvar & Michael Kiley & Albert Queralto & Jae Sim, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Banking-Sector Losses across Structural Models," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(3), pages 137-204, September.
    8. Eswar S. Prasad, 2015. "The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10599, April.
    9. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    10. Filardo, Andrew & Genberg, Hans & Hofmann, Boris, 2016. "Monetary analysis and the global financial cycle: An Asian central bank perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-16.
    11. Jagjit S Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," BIS Working Papers 415, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Ken Miyajima, 2015. "The transmission of monetary policy in EMEs in a changing financial environment: a longitudinal analysis," BIS Working Papers 495, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Benjamin M. Friedman, 2014. "Has the Financial Crisis Permanently Changed the Practice of Monetary Policy? Has It Changed the Theory of Monetary Policy?," NBER Working Papers 20128, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    15. Miyajima, Ken & Mohanty, M.S. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 126-139.
    16. Tom Fong & Ceara Hui & Alfred Y.-T. Wong, 2019. "How might sovereign bond yields in Asia Pacific react to US monetary normalisation under turbulent market conditions?," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(11), pages 2030-2055, August.
    17. Horacio A. Aguirre & Emilio F. Blanco, 2015. "Credit and Macroprudential Policy in an Emerging Economy: a Structural Model Assessment," BIS Working Papers 504, Bank for International Settlements.
    18. Philip Turner, 2011. "Fiscal Dominance and the Long-Term Interest Rate," FMG Special Papers sp199, Financial Markets Group.
    19. Manuel Ramos-Francia & Santiago García-Verdú, 2015. "Is trouble brewing for EMEs?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks?, volume 83, pages 243-272, Bank for International Settlements.
    20. Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2014. "Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 1-47, September.
    21. Blaise Gadanecz & Ken Miyajima & Jörg Urban, 2014. "How might EME central banks respond to the influence of global monetary factors?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 45-69, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Jimmy Shek & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?," BIS Working Papers 509, Bank for International Settlements.
    23. Maurice Obstfeld, 2015. "Trilemmas and Tradeoffs: Living with Financial Globalization," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 2, pages 013-078, Central Bank of Chile.
    24. Kyuil Chung & Jong-Eun Lee & Elena Loukoianova & Hail Park & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Global liquidity through the lens of monetary aggregates," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 231-290.
    25. Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2003. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1063-1070, November.
    26. Andrew Filardo & James Yetman, 2012. "The expansion of central bank balance sheets in emerging Asia: what are the risks?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
    27. David L. Reifschneider & Robert J. Tetlow & John Williams, 1999. "Aggregate disturbances, monetary policy, and the macroeconomy: the FRB/US perspective," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 85(Jan), pages 1-19, January.
    28. M S Mohanty & Philip Turner, 2006. "Foreign exchange reserve accumulation in emerging markets: what are the domestic implications?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    29. Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(2), pages 155-192, July.
    30. Michael Chui & Ingo Fender & Vladyslav Sushko, 2014. "Risks related to EME corporate balance sheets: the role of leverage and currency mismatch," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    31. Masazumi Hattori & Hyun Song Shin & Wataru Takahashi, 2009. "A Financial System Perspective on Japan's Experience in the Late 1980s," IMES Discussion Paper Series 09-E-19, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    32. Reddy, Y V & Valluri, Narayan & Ray, Partha, 2014. "Financial and Fiscal Policies: Crises and New Realities," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199452651.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Juan J. Cortina & Tatiana Didier & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2018. "Corporate debt maturity in developing countries: Sources of long and short‐termism," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3288-3316, December.
    2. Boris Hofmann & Elod Takáts, 2015. "International monetary spillovers," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    3. Boris Hofmann & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2016. "Sovereign yields and the risk-taking channel of currency appreciation," BIS Working Papers 538, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    5. Kim, Soyoung & Shin, Hyun Song, 2021. "Offshore EME bond issuance and the transmission channels of global liquidity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Veronica B Bayangos & Jeremy De Jesus, 2020. "Have domestic prudential policies been effective? Insights from bank-level property loan data," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Measuring the effectiveness of macroprudential policies using supervisory bank-level data, volume 110, pages 63-79, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Peter Hördahl & Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2016. "Low long-term interest rates as a global phenomenon," BIS Working Papers 574, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Malliaropulos, Dimitris & Migiakis, Petros, 2018. "The re-pricing of sovereign risks following the Global Financial Crisis," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 39-56.
    9. José María Serena & Ramon Moreno, 2016. "Domestic financial markets and offshore bond financing," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    10. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Julian di Giovanni & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Jose-Luis Peydro & Mehmet Fatih Ulu, 2016. "Capital flows, credit cycles and macroprudential policy," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy, volume 86, pages 63-68, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Már Gudmundsson, 2017. "Global Financial Integration And Central Bank Policies In Small, Open Economies," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 62(01), pages 135-146, March.
    12. Madhusudan Mohanty, 2015. "What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks? - An Overview," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), What do new forms of finance mean for EM central banks?, volume 83, pages 1-8, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Jimmy Shek & Ilhyock Shim & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Investor redemptions and fund manager sales of emerging market bonds: how are they related?," BIS Working Papers 509, Bank for International Settlements.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Global Dollar Credit and Carry Trades: A Firm-Level Analysis," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(3), pages 703-749.
    2. Madhusudan Mohanty & Kumar Rishabh, 2016. "Financial intermediation and monetary policy transmission in EMEs: What has changed post-2008 crisis?," BIS Working Papers 546, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Elod Takáts & Abraham Vela, 2014. "International monetary policy transmission," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The transmission of unconventional monetary policy to the emerging markets, volume 78, pages 25-44, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Joseph E Gagnon & Philip Turner, 2019. "Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies for Sustained Growth in Asia," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 497, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Agur, Itai & Chan, Melissa & Goswami, Mangal & Sharma, Sunil, 2019. "On international integration of emerging sovereign bond markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 347-363.
    6. McCauley, Robert N., 2015. "Does the US dollar confer an exorbitant privilege?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 1-14.
    7. Philip Turner, 2016. "Macroprudential policies, the long-term interest rate and the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 588, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Douglas W. Diamond & Yunzhi Hu & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2020. "The Spillovers from Easy Liquidity and the Implications for Multilateralism," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(1), pages 4-34, March.
    9. Bernhard, Severin & Ebner, Till, 2017. "Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 109-127.
    10. Filardo, Andrew & Genberg, Hans & Hofmann, Boris, 2016. "Monetary analysis and the global financial cycle: An Asian central bank perspective," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 1-16.
    11. Miyajima, Ken & Mohanty, M.S. & Chan, Tracy, 2015. "Emerging market local currency bonds: Diversification and stability," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 126-139.
    12. Hyun Song Shin, 2017. "Breaking free of the triple coincidence in international finance," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Statistical implications of the new financial landscape, volume 43, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Philip Turner, 2014. "The exit from non-conventional monetary policy: what challenges?," BIS Working Papers 448, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Peter Hördahl & Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2016. "Low long-term interest rates as a global phenomenon," BIS Working Papers 574, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Maurice Obstfeld, 2015. "Trilemmas and Tradeoffs: Living with Financial Globalization," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 2, pages 013-078, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Gadanecz, Blaise & Miyajima, Ken & Shu, Chang, 2018. "Emerging market local currency sovereign bond yields: The role of exchange rate risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 371-401.
    17. Georgiadis, Georgios & Mehl, Arnaud, 2016. "Financial globalisation and monetary policy effectiveness," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 200-212.
    18. Michael Chui & Emese Kuruc & Philip Turner, 2016. "A new dimension to currency mismatches in the emerging markets - non-financial companies," BIS Working Papers 550, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Anni Huang & Narayan Kundan Kishor, 2019. "The rise of dollar credit in emerging market economies and US monetary policy," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 530-551, February.
    20. Eugenio Cerutti & Stijn Claessens & Andrew K. Rose, 2019. "How Important is the Global Financial Cycle? Evidence from Capital Flows," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(1), pages 24-60, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exit from QE; long-term interest rate; emerging market economies; bond markets;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:508. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.