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Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Peter Hördahl

    (Bank for International Settlements)

  • Oreste Tristani

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

We use a joint model of macroeconomic and term structure dynamics to estimate inflation risk premia and inflation expectations in the United States and the euro area. To sharpen our estimation, we include in the information set macro data and survey data on inflation and interest rate expectations at various future horizons, as well as term structure data from both nominal and index-linked bonds. Our results indicate that, over the post-2004 period when index-linked bond markets were sufficiently developed in both monetary areas, inflation risk premia across various maturities had strikingly similar properties in the United States and in the euro area: their dynamics and their levels, especially over the years until mid-2011, have remained quite close to each other, even if premia appear to be subject to somewhat greater high-frequency volatility in the United States. After correcting for liquidity and inflation risk premia, long-term inflation expectations extracted from bond prices have remained remarkably stable at the peak of the financial crisis and throughout the Great Recession. For the United States, we also document a downward shift in the perceived inflation target, from approximately 3 percent until 2011 to levels closer to 2 percent following the FOMC announcement of a numerical long-term inflation goal.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Hördahl & Oreste Tristani, 2014. "Inflation Risk Premia in the Euro Area and the United States," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 10(3), pages 1-47, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2014:q:3:a:1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D’Amico, Stefania & Kim, Don H. & Wei, Min, 2018. "Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(01), pages 395-436, February.
    2. Gabriela Galati & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 167-207, March.
    3. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    4. Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 241-272, April.
    5. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums in an Arbitrage-Free Model of Nominal and Real Bond Yields," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 143-178, September.
    6. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Madhusudan Mohanty & Kumar Rishabh, 2016. "Financial intermediation and monetary policy transmission in EMEs: What has changed post-2008 crisis?," BIS Working Papers 546, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Ed Westerhout & Ona Ciocyte, 2017. "The role of inflation-linked bonds," CPB Discussion Paper 344, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    3. repec:chb:bcchni:v:20:y:2017:i:2:p:150-165 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Nautz, Dieter & Strohsal, Till, 2015. "Are US inflation expectations re-anchored?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 6-9.
    5. repec:taf:quantf:v:17:y:2017:i:12:p:1783-1793 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:reveco:v:57:y:2018:i:c:p:371-401 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:nbb:ecrart:y:2019:m:june:i:i:p:69-93 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jagjit S Chadha & Philip Turner & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2013. "The interest rate effects of government debt maturity," BIS Working Papers 415, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Sushanta K Mallick & Madhusudan Mohanty & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2017. "Market volatility, monetary policy and the term premium," BIS Working Papers 606, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Robert N. McCauley & Patrick McGuire & Vladyslav Sushko, 2015. "Global dollar credit: links to US monetary policy and leverage," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(82), pages 187-229.
    11. Hamza Bennani, 2016. "Media Coverage and ECB Policy-Making: Evidence from a New Index," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-38, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. Philip Turner, 2014. "The exit from non-conventional monetary policy: what challenges?," BIS Working Papers 448, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Philip Turner, 2016. "Macroprudential policies, the long-term interest rate and the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 588, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. repec:eee:ecolet:v:175:y:2019:i:c:p:36-39 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Westerhout, Ed & Ciocyte, Ona, 2017. "The Role of Inflation-Linked Bonds. Increasing, but Still Modest," Discussion Paper 2017-027, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2015. "Bond markets and monetary policy dilemmas for the emerging markets," BIS Working Papers 508, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. repec:bis:bisqtr:1809h is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Stefano Neri & Giuseppe Ferrero, 2017. "Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 392, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    19. repec:bla:intfin:v:20:y:2017:i:1:p:48-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jaccard, Ivan, 2018. "Stochastic discounting and the transmission of money supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2174, European Central Bank.
    21. Claudio Borio & Leonardo Gambacorta & Boris Hofmann, 2017. "The influence of monetary policy on bank profitability," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(1), pages 48-63, March.
    22. repec:spr:empeco:v:54:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-017-1268-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Marco Casiraghi & Marcello Miccoli, 2015. "Risk-adjusted expectations of inflation," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 286, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    24. Peter Hördahl & Jhuvesh Sobrun & Philip Turner, 2016. "Low long-term interest rates as a global phenomenon," BIS Working Papers 574, Bank for International Settlements.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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