Did the Crisis Affect Inflation Expectations?
We investigate whether the anchoring properties of longrun inflation expectations in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom have changed around the economic crisis that erupted in mid-2007. We document that surveybased measures of long-run inflation expectations remained fairly stable around 2 percent in the euro area, fluctuated above 2 percent in the United States, and drifted up to about 2.5 percent in the United Kingdom. Expectations measures extracted from inflation-indexed bonds and inflation swaps became much more volatile in 2007. Moreover, structural break tests show that their sensitivity to news about inflation and other domestic macroeconomic variables—a measure of anchoring—increased during the crisis, and in particular during the heightened turmoil triggered by the collapse of Lehman Brothers. While liquidity premia and technical factors have significantly influenced the behavior of inflation-indexed markets since the outburst of the crisis, we show that these factors did not contaminate the relationship between macroeconomic news and financial market-based inflation expectations at the daily frequency. While our evidence is consistent with the idea that long-run inflation expectations may have become less firmly anchored during the crisis, problems in measuring expectations accurately make it difficult to draw definitive conclusions.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Eric T. Swanson, 2006. "Would an inflation target help anchor U.S. inflation expectations?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue aug11.
- Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon M. Potter & Michael F. Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2011:q:1:a:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bank for International Settlements)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.