Inflation perceptions and expectations in Sweden - are media reports the 'missing link'?
Using quantitative survey data from the Swedish Consumer Tendency Survey as well as a unique data set on media reports about inflation, we analyze the formation process of inflation perceptions and expectations as well as interrelations between the variables. Throughout the analysis, the role of media reports about inflation is emphasized and results for the low inflation period January 1998 to December 2007 are compared to those including the high inflation year 2008. Rejecting rationality, we find that perceptions, but not expectations, are affected asymmetrically by news, where media effects are generally stronger in times of high and volatile inflation. For the low inflation sample period, inflation expectations are more affected by shocks to perceptions than vice versa, but Granger causality runs from expectations to per- ceptions. Including more volatile inflation, we find more feed-back between the variables and a strong media effect especially on perceptions.
|Date of creation:||Feb 2011|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Leonhardstrasse 21, CH-8092 Zürich|
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2011.
"The Formation Of Inflation Perceptions: Some Empirical Facts For European Countries,"
Scottish Journal of Political Economy,
Scottish Economic Society, vol. 58(2), pages 155-188, 05.
- Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2008. "The Formation of Inflation Perceptions - Some Empirical Facts for European Countries," KOF Working papers 08-204, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Paolo del Giovane & Silvia Fabiani & Roberto Sabbatini, 2009. "What's Behind "Inflation Perceptions"? A Survey-Based Analysis of Italian Consumers," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 68(1), pages 25-52, April.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
- Lena Vogel & Jan-Oliver Menz & Ulrich Fritsche, 2009. "Prospect Theory and Inflation Perceptions - An Empirical Assessment," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200903, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
- Wilbert Van der Klaauw & Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Simon M. Potter & Michael F. Bryan, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Eife, Thomas, 2006. "Currency Changeovers as Natural Experiments," Munich Dissertations in Economics 5839, University of Munich, Department of Economics. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)