Are survey stock price forecasts anchored by fundamental forecasts? A long-run perspective
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1007/s00199-024-01597-2
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Anderson, Michael L., 2008.
"Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103(484), pages 1481-1495.
- Anderson, Michael L, 2008. "Multiple Inference and Gender Differences in the Effects of Early Intervention: A Reevaluation of the Abecedarian, Perry Preschool, and Early Training Projects," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt15n8j26f, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012.
"House Price Booms and the Current Account,"
NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77-122.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2011, Volume 26, pages 77-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," CEP Discussion Papers dp1064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Working Papers 17224, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher G. Gibbs, 2017.
"Forecast combination, non-linear dynamics, and the macroeconomy,"
Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 63(3), pages 653-686, March.
- Christopher Gibbs, 2015. "Forecast Combination, Non-linear Dynamics, and the Macroeconomy," Discussion Papers 2015-05, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
- Kuang, Pei & Tang, Li & Zhang, Renbin & Zhang, Tongbin, 2022. "Forecast disagreement about long-run macroeconomic relationships," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 371-387.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2011.
"Expectations, Learning, and Business Cycle Fluctuations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2844-2872, October.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Expectations, Learning and Business Cycle Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 14181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefano Eusepi & Bruce Preston, 2008. "Expectations, Learning And Business Cycle Fluctuations," CAMA Working Papers 2008-20, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2020.
"Overreaction in Macroeconomic Expectations,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(9), pages 2748-2782, September.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2018. "Over-reaction in Macroeconomic Expectations," NBER Working Papers 24932, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022.
"Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
- Peter Andre & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2019. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and Representative Samples," CESifo Working Paper Series 7850, CESifo.
- Peter Andre & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 119, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
- Peter Andre & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2019. "Subjective Models Of The Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts And A Representative Sample," CEBI working paper series 19-11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
- Andre, Peter & Pizzinelli, Carlo & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2021. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy : Evidence from Experts and a Representative Sample," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1342, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Kuang, Pei, 2014.
"A model of housing and credit cycles with imperfect market knowledge,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 419-437.
- Pei Kuang, 2014. "A Model of Housing and Credit Cycles with Imperfect Market Knowledge," Discussion Papers 14-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2008.
"Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 629-651, July.
- Eva Carceles Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2006. "Asset pricing with adaptive learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 25, Society for Computational Economics.
- Giannitsarou, Chryssi & Carceles-Poveda, Eva, 2007. "Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, July.
- Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022.
"Asset Pricing with Fading Memory,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 2190-2245.
- Nagel, Stefan & Xu, Zhengyang, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," CEPR Discussion Papers 13973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," NBER Working Papers 26255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," 2019 Meeting Papers 71, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Fabio Milani, 2006.
"A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?,"
International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(3), September.
- Fabio Milani, 2005. "A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?," Working Papers 060703, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
- Milani, Fabio, 2006. "A Bayesian DSGE Model with Infinite-Horizon Learning: Do "Mechanical" Sources of Persistence Become Superfluous?," MPRA Paper 809, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Michael Johannes & Lars A. Lochstoer, 2016. "Parameter Learning in General Equilibrium: The Asset Pricing Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(3), pages 664-698, March.
- Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Johannes Beutel, 2017.
"Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2352-2408, August.
- Klaus Adam & Johannes Beutel & Albert Marcet, 2014. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 948.14, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Adam, Klaus & Beutel, Johannes & Marcet, Albert, 2014. "Stock price booms and expected capital gains," Working Papers 14-12, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
- Klaus Adam & Johannes Beutel & Albert Marcet, 2015. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," Working Papers 757, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Marcet, Albert & Adam, Klaus & Beutel, Johannes, 2014. "Stock Price Booms and Expected Capital Gains," CEPR Discussion Papers 9988, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2016.
"Stock Market Volatility and Learning,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(1), pages 33-82, February.
- Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo & Adam, Klaus, 2007. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," CEPR Discussion Papers 6518, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2015. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Working Papers 720, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2011. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," CEP Discussion Papers dp1077, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Albert Marcet & Klaus Adam & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2008. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 732.08, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
- Klaus Adam & Juan Pablo Nicolini & Albert Marcet, 2015. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Working Papers 336, Barcelona School of Economics.
- Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2008. "Stock market volatility and learning," Working Paper Series 862, European Central Bank.
- Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2011. "Stock market volatility and learning," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121739, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert & Nicolini, Juan Pablo, 2012. "Stock Market Volatility and Learning," Working Papers 12-06, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999.
"Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior,"
Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1995. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," NBER Working Papers 4995, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John & Cochrane, John H., 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," CRSP working papers 412, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Lamont, Owen A., 2002.
"Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
- Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jermann, Urban J., 1998. "Asset pricing in production economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 257-275, April.
- Carola Binder & Pei Kuang & Li Tang, 2023. "Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations," NBER Working Papers 31232, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2011.
"Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk Taking?,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(1), pages 373-416.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2009. "Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?," NBER Working Papers 14813, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Fabio Milani, 2011.
"Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 379-401, May.
- Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2021.
"Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(5), pages 1481-1522, May.
- Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2019. "Five facts about beliefs and portfolios," CESifo Working Paper Series 7666, CESifo.
- Maggiori, Matteo & Ströbel, Johannes & Giglio, Stefano & Utkus, Stephen P., 2019. "Five Facts About Beliefs and Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 13657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefano Giglio & Matteo Maggiori & Johannes Stroebel & Stephen Utkus, 2019. "Five Facts about Beliefs and Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 25744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2008.
"Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(3), pages 629-651, July.
- Eva Carceles-Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2007. "Online Appendix to Asset Pricing with Adaptive Learning," Online Appendices carceles08, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007.
"Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
- Boswijk, H.P. & Hommes C.H. & Manzan, S., 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," CeNDEF Working Papers 05-12, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Peter Boswijk & Cars H. Hommes & Sebastiano Manzan, 2005. "Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-052/1, Tinbergen Institute.
- Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2010.
"What Comes to Mind,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(4), pages 1399-1433.
- Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2009. "What Comes to Mind," NBER Working Papers 15084, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gennaioli, N. & Shleifer, Andrei, 2010. "What Comes to Mind," Scholarly Articles 27867129, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2009. "What comes to mind," Economics Working Papers 1186, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2009.
- Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014.
"Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
- Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, "undated". "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," Working Paper 102501, Harvard University OpenScholar.
- Greenwood, Robin Marc & Shleifer, Andrei, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," Scholarly Articles 11880390, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2013. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 18686, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher D. Carroll, 2003.
"Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
- Christopher D Carroll, 2002. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," Economics Working Paper Archive 477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
- Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter, 1992. "The CUSUM Test with OLS Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 271-285, March.
- Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996.
"Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
- Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E., 1992. "Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts," RCER Working Papers 335, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Allan Gregory & Bruce E. Hansen, 1992. "Residual-based Tests For Cointegration In Models With Regime Shifts," Working Paper 862, Economics Department, Queen's University.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "GREGORYHANSEN: RATS procedure to implement Gregory-Hansen test for Cointegration with breaks," Statistical Software Components RTS00082, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate results from Gregory and Hansen(1996) JOE article," Statistical Software Components RTZ00081, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Carola Binder & Christos Makridis, 2022. "Stuck in the Seventies: Gas Prices and Consumer Sentiment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 293-305, May.
- Simon Grant & Idione Meneghel & Rabee Tourky, 2022. "Learning under unawareness," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(2), pages 447-475, September.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015.
"Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," Working Papers 102, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
- Mr. Olivier Coibion & Mr. Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," IMF Working Papers 2012/296, International Monetary Fund.
- Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," NBER Working Papers 16537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2019.
"Cognitive Abilities and Inflation Expectations,"
AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 562-566, May.
- D'Acunto, Francesco & Hoang, Daniel & Paloviita, Maritta & Weber, Michael, 2019. "Cognitive abilities and inflation expectations," Working Paper Series in Economics 126, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Management.
- Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik, 2003. "Analyzing the Analysts: Career Concerns and Biased Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 313-351, February.
- Malmendier, Ulrike & Nagel, Stefan & Yan, Zhen, 2021.
"The making of hawks and doves,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 19-42.
- Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Nagel, Stefan & Yan, Zhen, 2020. "The Making of Hawks and Doves," CEPR Discussion Papers 14938, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Jianjun Miao & Hao Xing, 2024. "Dynamic discrete choice under rational inattention," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 77(3), pages 597-652, May.
- James Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2008.
"Monetary Policy, Judgment, and Near-Rational Exuberance,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 1163-1177, June.
- James B. Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2007. "Monetary policy, judgment and near-rational exuberance," Working Papers 2007-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Jin, Lawrence J. & Sui, Pengfei, 2022. "Asset pricing with return extrapolation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 273-295.
- Winkler, Fabian, 2020.
"The role of learning for asset prices and business cycles,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 42-58.
- Fabian Winkler, 2016. "The Role of Learning for Asset Prices and Business Cycles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-019, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Bansal, Ravi & Kiku, Dana & Yaron, Amir, 2012.
"An Empirical Evaluation of the Long-Run Risks Model for Asset Prices,"
Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 183-221, January.
- Ravi Bansal & Dana Kiku & Amir Yaron, 2009. "An Empirical Evaluation of the Long-Run Risks Model for Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 15504, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kuang, Pei & Mitra, Kaushik, 2016.
"Long-run growth uncertainty,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 67-80.
- Pei Kuang & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Long Run Growth Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 15-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Pei Kuang & Kaushik Mitra, 2015. "Long-Run Growth Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 15-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Paul Ehling & Alessandro Graniero & Christian Heyerdahl-Larsen, 2018. "Asset Prices and Portfolio Choice with Learning from Experience," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(3), pages 1752-1780.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2019.
"Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(6), pages 2839-2874, December.
- Pedro Bordalo & Nicola Gennaioli & Rafael La Porta & Andrei Shleifer, 2017. "Diagnostic Expectations and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 23863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Michele Boldrin & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2001.
"Habit Persistence, Asset Returns, and the Business Cycle,"
American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(1), pages 149-166, March.
- Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 1999. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-99-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Michele Boldrin & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jonas D. M. Fisher, 2000. "Habit persistence, asset returns and the business cycle," Staff Report 280, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- de Vincent-Humphreys, Rupert & Dimitrova, Ivelina & Falck, Elisabeth & Henkel, Lukas & Meyler, Aidan, 2019. "Twenty years of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
- KevinJ. Lansing, 2010.
"Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(549), pages 1149-1174, December.
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2007. "Rational and Near-Rational Bubbles Without Drift," 2007 Meeting Papers 970, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2007. "Rational and near-rational bubbles without drift," Working Paper Series 2007-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Cochrane, John H., 1991. "A critique of the application of unit root tests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 275-284, April.
- Reifschneider, David L. & Stockton, David J. & Wilcox, David W., 1997. "Econometric models and the monetary policy process," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-37, December.
- Makridis, Christos A., 2022. "The social transmission of economic sentiment on consumption," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
- Patricia C. O'Brien & Maureen F. Mcnichols & Lin Hsiou‐Wei, 2005. "Analyst Impartiality and Investment Banking Relationships," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 623-650, September.
- Massimiliano Croce, Mariano, 2014. "Long-run productivity risk: A new hope for production-based asset pricing?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 13-31.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001.
"LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Ulrike Malmendier & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Learning from Inflation Experiences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(1), pages 53-87.
- repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1481-1509 is not listed on IDEAS
- Efe A. Ok & Andrei Savochkin, 2022. "Believing in forecasts, uncertainty, and rational expectations," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 74(3), pages 947-971, October.
- Francis, J & Philbrick, D, 1993. "Analysts Decisions As Products Of A Multitask Environment," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 216-230.
- John R. Graham, 1999. "Herding among Investment Newsletters: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 237-268, February.
- Francesco D’Acunto & Ulrike Malmendier & Juan Ospina & Michael Weber, 2021. "Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(5), pages 1615-1639.
- Marinovic, Iván & Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter, 2013. "Forecasters’ Objectives and Strategies," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 690-720, Elsevier.
- Tai-Wei Hu, 2023. "Forgetful updating and stubborn decision-makers," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 75(3), pages 781-802, April.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Pei Kuang & Renbin Zhang & Tongbin Zhang, 2019. "New Tests of Expectation Formation with Applications to Asset Pricing Models," Discussion Papers 19-05, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Pei Kuang, 2019. "New Tests of Expectation Formation with Applications to Asset Pricing Models," 2019 Meeting Papers 187, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Kuang, Pei & Tang, Li & Zhang, Renbin & Zhang, Tongbin, 2022. "Forecast disagreement about long-run macroeconomic relationships," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 371-387.
- Zhang, Tongbin, 2021. "Stock prices and the risk-free rate: An internal rationality approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
- Klaus Adam & Oliver Pfäuti & Timo Reinelt, 2020. "Falling Natural Rates, Rising Housing Volatility and the Optimal Inflation Target," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_235, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
- Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022.
"Asset Pricing with Fading Memory,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(5), pages 2190-2245.
- Nagel, Stefan & Xu, Zhengyang, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," CEPR Discussion Papers 13973, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," NBER Working Papers 26255, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2019. "Asset Pricing with Fading Memory," 2019 Meeting Papers 71, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Oesinghaus, Andreas, 2024. "Analysts’ extrapolative expectations in the cross-section," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
- Caines, Colin, 2020.
"Can learning explain boom-bust cycles in asset prices? An application to the US housing boom,"
Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
- Colin C. Caines, 2016. "Can Learning Explain Boom-Bust Cycles In Asset Prices? An Application to the US Housing Boom," International Finance Discussion Papers 1181, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Colin Caines, 2017. "Can Learning Explain Boom-Bust Cycles in Asset Prices? An Application to the US Housing Boom," 2017 Meeting Papers 695, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Katsuhiro Oshima, 2021. "Heterogeneous beliefs, monetary policy, and stock price volatility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 79-125, March.
- Adam, Klaus & Matveev, Dmitry & Nagel, Stefan, 2021.
"Do survey expectations of stock returns reflect risk adjustments?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 723-740.
- Klaus Adam & Dmitry Matveev & Stefan Nagel, 2018. "Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments?," NBER Working Papers 25122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Klaus Adam & Dmitry Matveev & Stefan Nagel, 2019. "Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments?," 2019 Meeting Papers 641, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Klaus Adam & Dmitry Matveev & Stefan Nagel, 2019. "Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk Adjustments?," Staff Working Papers 19-11, Bank of Canada.
- Adam, Klaus & Matveev, Dmitry & Nagel, Stefan, 2018. "Do survey expectations of stock returns reflect risk-adjustments?," CFS Working Paper Series 600, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- Adam, Klaus & Nagel, Stefan & Matveev, Dmitry, 2018. "Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13213, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Klaus Adam & Dmitry Matveev & Stefan Nagel, 2018. "Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments?," CESifo Working Paper Series 7285, CESifo.
- Kuang, Pei, 2014.
"A model of housing and credit cycles with imperfect market knowledge,"
European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 419-437.
- Pei Kuang, 2014. "A Model of Housing and Credit Cycles with Imperfect Market Knowledge," Discussion Papers 14-07, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
- Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022.
"Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
- Kevin J. Lansing & Stephen F. LeRoy & Jun Ma, 2022. "Examining the Sources of Excess Return Predictability: Stochastic Volatility or Market Inefficiency?," Working Paper Series 2018-14, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Weber, Martin & Kieren, Pascal & Mueller-Dethard, Jan, 2020. "Why so Negative? Belief Formation and Risk Taking in Boom and Bust Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 14647, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Chen, Heng & Li, Xu & Pei, Guangyu & Xin, Qian, 2024. "Heterogeneous overreaction in expectation formation: Evidence and theory," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
- Patrick Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2019.
"Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession,"
Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 123-146, January.
- Patrick A. Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2013. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," AMSE Working Papers 1333, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised 05 Jun 2013.
- Patrick A. Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2019. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," Post-Print hal-01889886, HAL.
- Jacek Suda & Patrick Pintus, 2015. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," 2015 Meeting Papers 577, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Patrick Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2018. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," GRAPE Working Papers 28, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
- Patrick A. Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2016. "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession," Working Papers halshs-00830480, HAL.
- Patrick Pintus & Jacek Suda, 2018. "Code and data files for "Learning Financial Shocks and the Great Recession"," Computer Codes 18-210, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Lansing, Kevin J., 2024.
"Replicating business cycles and asset returns with sentiment and low risk aversion,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
- Kevin J. Lansing, 2021. "Replicating Business Cycles and Asset Returns with Sentiment and Low Risk Aversion," Working Paper Series 2021-02, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Anmol Bhandari & Jaroslav Borovicka & Paul Ho, 2019. "Survey Data and Subjective Beliefs in Business Cycle Models," Working Paper 19-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
- Winkler, Fabian, 2020.
"The role of learning for asset prices and business cycles,"
Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 42-58.
- Fabian Winkler, 2016. "The Role of Learning for Asset Prices and Business Cycles," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-019, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Peter Andrebriq & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2022.
"Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples,"
The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(6), pages 2958-2991.
- Peter Andre & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2019. "Subjective Models Of The Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts And A Representative Sample," CEBI working paper series 19-11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. The Center for Economic Behavior and Inequality (CEBI).
- Peter Andre & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2019. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence from Experts and Representative Samples," CESifo Working Paper Series 7850, CESifo.
- Peter Andre & Carlo Pizzinelli & Christopher Roth & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy: Evidence From Experts and Representative Samples," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 119, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
- Andre, Peter & Pizzinelli, Carlo & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2021. "Subjective Models of the Macroeconomy : Evidence from Experts and a Representative Sample," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1342, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2023.
"Heterogeneous expectations among professional forecasters,"
ZEW Discussion Papers
23-062, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
- Conrad, Christian & Lahiri, Kajal, 2024. "Heterogeneous Expectations among Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0754, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
More about this item
Keywords
Survey expectation; Asset pricing; Cointegration;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:joecth:v:79:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s00199-024-01597-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.