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What comes to mind

  • Nicola Gennaioli
  • Andrei Shleifer

We present a model of intuitive inference, called “local thinking,” in which an agent combines data received from the external world with information retrieved from memory to evaluate a hypothesis. In this model, selected and limited recall of information follows a version of the respresentativeness heuristic. The model can account for some of the evidence on judgment biases, including conjunction and disjunction fallacies, but also for several anomalies related to demand for insurance.

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Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 1186.

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Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision: Nov 2009
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:1186
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  1. repec:tpr:qjecon:v:123:y:2008:i:2:p:577-619 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Johnson, Eric J, et al, 1993. " Framing, Probability Distortions, and Insurance Decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-51, August.
  3. Philippe Jeniel, 2001. "Analogy-Based Expectation Equilibrium," Economics Working Papers 0003, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
  4. Sendhil Mullainathan & Joshua Schwartzstein & Andrei Shleifer, 2006. "Coarse Thinking and Persuasion," NBER Working Papers 12720, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
  6. Osborne, Martin J & Rubinstein, Ariel, 1998. "Games with Procedurally Rational Players," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 834-47, September.
  7. repec:oup:qjecon:v:123:y:2008:i:2:p:577-619 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. repec:oup:qjecon:v:114:y:1999:i:1:p:37-82 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. repec:oup:qjecon:v:117:y:2002:i:3:p:775-816 is not listed on IDEAS
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