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Cognitive Abilities and Inflation Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco D'Acunto
  • Daniel Hoang
  • Maritta Paloviita
  • Michael Weber

Abstract

Cognitive abilities help explain the large cross-sectional variation in inflation expectations at the household level. But which type of cognitive abilities are important? We find that not only quantitative abilities but also logical and verbal abilities are important to explain the accuracy and plausibility of households' inflation expectations. We discuss the channels through which different forms of cognition might shape households' abilities to forecast future macroeconomic variables. We also draw implications for the effectiveness of policies that aim to manage households' expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco D'Acunto & Daniel Hoang & Maritta Paloviita & Michael Weber, 2019. "Cognitive Abilities and Inflation Expectations," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 562-566, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:109:y:2019:p:562-66
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20191050
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    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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