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Inflation Experience and Inflation Expectations: Dispersion and Disagreement Within Demographic Groups

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Abstract

Using consumption data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, I document persistent differences across demographic groups in the dispersion of household-specific rates of inflation. Using survey data on inflation expectations, I show that demographic groups with greater dispersion in experienced inflation also disagree more about future inflation. I argue that these results can be rationalized from the perspective of an imperfect information model in which idiosyncratic inflation experience serves as a signal about aggregate inflation. These empirical regularities pose a challenge to several other popular models of the expectations formation process of households.

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  • Benjamin K. Johannsen, 2014. "Inflation Experience and Inflation Expectations: Dispersion and Disagreement Within Demographic Groups," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-89, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2014-89
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    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    2. Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu, 2011. "Demographic differences in inflation expectations: what do they really mean?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May.
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    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
    5. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    6. Wändi Bruine De Bruin & Charles F. Manski & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert van der Klaauw, 2011. "Measuring consumer uncertainty about future inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 454-478, April.
    7. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    8. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2007. "Erratum to "Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?"," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(7), pages 1849-1849, October.
    10. Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Michael F. Bryan & Simon M. Potter & Giorgio Topa & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2008. "Rethinking the measurement of household inflation expectations: preliminary findings," Staff Reports 359, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    11. Carlos Madeira & Basit Zafar, 2015. "Heterogeneous Inflation Expectations and Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(5), pages 867-896, August.
    12. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, vol. 25(Win), pages 2-11.
    13. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Demgensky, Lisa & Fritsche, Ulrich, 2023. "Narratives on the causes of inflation in Germany: First results of a pilot study," WiSo-HH Working Paper Series 77, University of Hamburg, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences, WISO Research Laboratory.
    2. Christoph Lauper & Giacomo Mangiante, 2021. "Monetary policy shocks and inflation inequality," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 21.02a, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    3. repec:upd:utmpwp:001 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jess Diamond & Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2016. "The Formation of Consumer Inflation Expectations: New Evidence From Japan's Deflation Experience," CARF F-Series CARF-F-388, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    5. Jess Diamond & Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2018. "The Formation of Consumer Inflation Expectations: New Evidence From Japan's Deflation Experience," CARF F-Series CARF-F-442, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
    6. repec:upd:utppwp:067 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Gaurav Kumar Singh & Tathagata Bandyopadhyay, 2024. "Determinants of disagreement: Learning from inflation expectations survey of households," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(2), pages 326-343, March.
    8. Li, Shaoyu & Wei, Lijia & Xu, Zhiwei, 2017. "Dynamic asset allocation and consumption under inflation inequality: The impacts of inflation experiences and expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 113-125.
    9. Kaplan, Greg & Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, 2017. "Inflation at the household level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 19-38.
    10. Berge, Travis J., 2018. "Understanding survey-based inflation expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 788-801.
    11. Jess Diamond & Kota Watanabe & Tsutomu Watanabe, 2019. "The Formation of Consumer Inflation Expectations: New Evidence From Japan's Deflation Experience," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 19-E-13, Bank of Japan.
    12. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Kumar, Saten & Pedemonte, Mathieu, 2020. "Inflation expectations as a policy tool?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).

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