IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Measuring Inflation Expectations: Consumers' Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity

Listed author(s):
  • Abe, Naohito
  • Ueno, Yuko
Registered author(s):

    Using the results of detailed random experiments, we find clear evidence of the effects of information provision on consumers’ inflation expectations. The responses of expectations to new information are nonlinear, including those of a sizable share of individuals who do not change their expectations. We document that the updates of consumers are quite heterogeneous, leading to a varied extent of revisions in the face of new information. One possible interpretation is the heterogeneity in consumers’ knowledge of inflation-related issues, as well as the difference in the content of the information. Consumers learn and update their expectations vis-à-vis future inflation based on new information, through a mechanism that is more complex than a simple learning model.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/rs/bitstream/10086/27308/1/dp15-5.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Research Center for Economic and Social Risks, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University in its series RCESR Discussion Paper Series with number DP15-5.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 27 p.
    Date of creation: Jun 2015
    Handle: RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp15-5
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    2-1 Naka, Kunitachi City, Tokyo 186-8603

    Phone: +81-42-580-8351
    Fax: +81-42-580-8333
    Web page: http://risk.ier.hit-u.ac.jp/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as
    in new window


    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
    2. Andrade, Philippe & Le Bihan, Hervé, 2013. "Inattentive professional forecasters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(8), pages 967-982.
    3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    4. Bartosz Mackowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2009. "Optimal Sticky Prices under Rational Inattention," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 769-803, June.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 209-270 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Alberto Cavallo & Guillermo Cruces & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2014. "Inflation Expectations, Learning and Supermarket Prices," NBER Working Papers 20576, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(8), pages 2644-2678, August.
    8. Härdle, Wolfgang & Horowitz, Joel L. & Kreiss, Jens-Peter, 2001. "Bootstrap methods for time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,59, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    9. Hausman, Jerry & Palmer, Christopher, 2012. "Heteroskedasticity-robust inference in finite samples," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 232-235.
    10. Alan S. Blinder, 2000. "Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1421-1431, December.
    11. Horowitz, Joel L., 2001. "The bootstrap and hypothesis tests in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 37-40, January.
    12. Christopher D. Carroll, 2003. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(1), pages 269-298.
    13. Horowitz, Joel L., 2001. "The Bootstrap," Handbook of Econometrics,in: J.J. Heckman & E.E. Leamer (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 52, pages 3159-3228 Elsevier.
    14. Sims, Christopher A., 2003. "Implications of rational inattention," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 665-690, April.
    15. Jonung, Lars, 1981. "Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 961-968, December.
    16. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp15-5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Resources Section, Hitotsubashi University Library)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.