IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/sfb373/200159.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bootstrap methods for time series

Author

Listed:
  • Härdle, Wolfgang
  • Horowitz, Joel L.
  • Kreiss, Jens-Peter

Abstract

The bootstrap is a method for estimating the distribution of an estimator or test statistic by resampling one's data or a model estimated from the data. The methods that are available for implementing the bootstrap and the accuracy of bootstrap estimates depend on whether the data are a random sample from a distribution or a time series. This paper is concerned with the application of the bootstrap to time-series data when one does not have a finite-dimensional parametric model that reduces the data generation process to independent random sampling. We review the methods that have been proposed for implementing the bootstrap in this situation and discuss the accuracy of these methods relative to that of first-order asymptotic approximations. We argue that methods for implementing the bootstrap with time-series data are not as well understood as methods for data that are sampled randomly from a distribution. Moreover, the performance of the bootstrap as measured by the rate of convergence of estimation errors tends to be poorer with time series than with random samples. This is an important problem for applied research because first-order asymptotic approximations are often inaccurate and misleading with time-series data and samples of the sizes encountered in applications. We conclude that there is a need for further research in the application of the bootstrap to time series, and we describe some of the important unsolved problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Härdle, Wolfgang & Horowitz, Joel L. & Kreiss, Jens-Peter, 2001. "Bootstrap methods for time series," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2001,59, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200159
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/62726/1/725561971.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Wolfgang Hardle & Torsten Kleinow & Alexander Korostelev & Camille Logeay & Eckhard Platen, 2008. "Semiparametric diffusion estimation and application to a stock market index," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 81-92.
    3. Donald W. K. Andrews, 2002. "Higher-Order Improvements of a Computationally Attractive "k"-Step Bootstrap for Extremum Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 119-162, January.
    4. Lahiri, Soumendra Nath, 1991. "Second order optimality of stationary bootstrap," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 335-341, April.
    5. Arup Bose, 1990. "Bootstrap in moving average models," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 42(4), pages 753-768, December.
    6. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1999. "The Size Distortion Of Bootstrap Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 361-376, June.
    7. Edwin Choi & Peter Hall, 2000. "Bootstrap confidence regions computed from autoregressions of arbitrary order," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(2), pages 461-477.
    8. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    9. Inoue, Atsushi & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2006. "Bootstrapping GMM estimators for time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 531-555, August.
    10. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    12. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    13. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    14. Datta, S. & Mccormick, W. P., 1995. "Some Continuous Edgeworth Expansions for Markov Chains with Applications to Bootstrap," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 83-106, January.
    15. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    16. Lahiri, Soumendra Nath, 1996. "On Edgeworth Expansion and Moving Block Bootstrap for StudentizedM-Estimators in Multiple Linear Regression Models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 42-59, January.
    17. Hall, Peter & Horowitz, Joel L, 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 891-916, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Härdle & Joel Horowitz & Jens‐Peter Kreiss, 2003. "Bootstrap Methods for Time Series," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 71(2), pages 435-459, August.
    2. Paulo M. D. C. Parente & Richard J. Smith, 2021. "Quasi‐maximum likelihood and the kernel block bootstrap for nonlinear dynamic models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(4), pages 377-405, July.
    3. La Vecchia, Davide & Moor, Alban & Scaillet, Olivier, 2023. "A higher-order correct fast moving-average bootstrap for dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(1), pages 65-81.
    4. Inoue, Atsushi & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2006. "Bootstrapping GMM estimators for time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 531-555, August.
    5. Allen, Jason & Gregory, Allan W. & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2011. "Empirical likelihood block bootstrapping," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 161(2), pages 110-121, April.
    6. Yixiao Sun & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2008. "Optimal Bandwidth Choice for Interval Estimation in GMM Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1661, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Blaskowitz, Oliver & Herwartz, Helmut, 2014. "Testing the value of directional forecasts in the presence of serial correlation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 30-42.
    8. Jeremy Berkowitz & Lutz Kilian, 2000. "Recent developments in bootstrapping time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 1-48.
    9. Bravo, Francesco & Crudu, Federico, 2012. "Efficient bootstrap with weakly dependent processes," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3444-3458.
    10. Vilasuso, Jon, 2001. "Causality tests and conditional heteroskedasticity: : Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 25-35, March.
    11. Andersen, Torben G & Sorensen, Bent E, 1996. "GMM Estimation of a Stochastic Volatility Model: A Monte Carlo Study," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 328-352, July.
    12. Goncalves, Silvia & White, Halbert, 2004. "Maximum likelihood and the bootstrap for nonlinear dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 199-219, March.
    13. Romano, Joseph P. & Wolf, Michael, 2001. "Improved nonparametric confidence intervals in time series regressions," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws010201, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    14. Politis, D N, 2009. "Higher-Order Accurate, Positive Semi-definite Estimation of Large-Sample Covariance and Spectral Density Matrices," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt66w826hz, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    15. Paulo M.D.C. Parente & Richard J. Smith, 2018. "Generalised Empirical Likelihood Kernel Block Bootstrapping," Working Papers REM 2018/55, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. James G. MacKinnon, 2012. "Thirty Years Of Heteroskedasticity-robust Inference," Working Paper 1268, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    17. Javed Iqbal & Robert Brooks & Don Galagedera, 2010. "Multivariate tests of asset pricing: simulation evidence from an emerging market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 381-395.
    18. Gonçalves, Sílvia & White, Halbert, 2002. "The Bootstrap Of The Mean For Dependent Heterogeneous Arrays," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 1367-1384, December.
    19. Helene Hamisultane, 2010. "Utility-based pricing of weather derivatives," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 503-525.
    20. Jose Dias Curto & Jose Castro Pinto, 2009. "The coefficient of variation asymptotic distribution in the case of non-iid random variables," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 21-32.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfhubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.