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The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on US Imports from the UK: Consistent OLS Estimation with Volatility Measured by An ARCH-type Model

Author

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  • Jan M. Podivinsky
  • Chongcheul Cheong
  • Maozu Lu

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate volatility on US-UK bilateral trade flows. As part of econometric problems arising from a generated variable, we consider a special case when an ARCH type auxiliary model is used to measure uncertainty in the exchange rate and discuss a procedure for the correct inference of the OLS estimates of the primary equation in the second stage, which includes the generated variable. By applying this two-step approach, we find a statistically significant, negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on US imports from the United Kin

Suggested Citation

  • Jan M. Podivinsky & Chongcheul Cheong & Maozu Lu, 2004. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on US Imports from the UK: Consistent OLS Estimation with Volatility Measured by An ARCH-type Model," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 212, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:212
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ARCH model; Consistent estimation; Generated regressors; Volatility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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