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MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members

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  • Juan Pi??eiro Chousa,

    ()

  • Artur Tamazian,

    ()

  • Davit N. Melikyan,

    ()

Abstract

In this paper we propose an empirical model that considers theoretical facts on the relationship between real exchange rates and the net exports of the economy to supplement the interaction of a number of financial and economic factors with the stock market. We discuss the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on market risk in terms of Value at Risk (VaR). Our empirical findings show that common currency introduction produced increments in VaR whereas European stock returns are more sensitive to changes in competitiveness regarding the EMU rather than national exports. Finally, we show that the synchronisation of variation in competitiveness through the introduction of a single currency has made these changes more decisive in explaining financial market fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pi??eiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2008-916
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    Keywords

    Euro; Competitiveness; Market Risk; Net Export; Value-at-Risk; Volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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