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The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: a Matter of Size?

  • Philippe Martin

This paper analyses how country size affects exchange rate policy and volatility. A hump-shaped relation between exchange rate variability and the size of countries is generated in the theoretical model: exchange rate variability increases with country size for small countries, but then decreases for large countries. The paper finds that this theoretical prediction holds well for bilateral exchange rates of the OECD countries for the period 1980–95 as well as for a subsample of European exchange rates with respect to the dollar. The results suggest that dollar/euro volatility should be lower than the present dollar/Deutsche Mark volatility, but that the decrease may depend significatively on the size and composition of EMU.

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Paper provided by CEPII research center in its series Working Papers with number 1997-06.

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Date of creation: Apr 1997
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Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:1997-06
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  1. Flood, Robert P & Rose, Andrew K, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," CEPR Discussion Papers 838, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Torsten Persson & Guido Tabellini, . "Monetary Cohabitation in Europe," Working Papers 96, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  3. Martin, Philippe, 1994. "Monetary policy and country size," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 573-586, October.
  4. Cohen, Daniel, 1997. "How Will the Euro behave?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1673, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Robert J. Barro & David B. Gordon, 1983. "Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 1079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Martin, Philippe, 1995. "Free-riding, convergence and two-speed monetary unification in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 1345-1364, August.
  7. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Gray, Jo Anna, 1985. "Monetary Policy Games and the Consequences of Non-cooperative Behavior," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 26(3), pages 547-64, October.
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