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Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade

  • Gagnon, Joseph E.

There have been numerous theoretical and empirical studies of the effect of exchange rate variability on the level of international trade. Most theoretical studies have concluded that under reasonable assumptions exchange rate variability ought to depress the level of trade. Empirical studies generally have not identified a significant effect of exchange rate variability on trade flows. This paper builds a theoretical model in which exchange rate variability has a negative effect on the level of trade. The model is calibrated to observed trade flows and real exchange rates. Simulation of the model demonstrates that the effect of increasing exchange rate variability on trade flows is very small. These results are not sensitive to a wide range of parameter values. Moreover, reasonable extensions of the model only serve to minimize further the effect of exchange rate variability on trade flows.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Economics.

Volume (Year): 34 (1993)
Issue (Month): 3-4 (May)
Pages: 269-287

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Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:34:y:1993:i:3-4:p:269-287
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/505552

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  1. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  2. Dixit, Avinash K, 1989. "Hysteresis, Import Penetration, and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 104(2), pages 205-28, May.
  3. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1989. "Adjustment costs and international trade dynamics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 327-344, May.
  4. Richard Baldwin, 1988. "Hysteresis In Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect," NBER Working Papers 2545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, 09.
  6. Victoria S. Farrell & Dean A. DeRosa & T. Ashby McCown, 1983. "Effects of exchange rate variability on international trade and other economic variables : a review of the literature," Staff Studies 130, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Leland, Hayne E, 1972. "Theory of the Firm Facing Uncertain Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 62(3), pages 278-91, June.
  8. Wilbur John Coleman II, 1989. "An algorithm to solve dynamic models," International Finance Discussion Papers 351, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Giovannini, Alberto, 1988. "Exchange rates and traded goods prices," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 45-68, February.
  10. Lucas, Robert E, Jr & Prescott, Edward C, 1971. "Investment Under Uncertainty," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 39(5), pages 659-81, September.
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