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Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence

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  • WenShwo Fang

    (Feng Chia University)

  • YiHao Lai

    (Feng Chia University)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Connecticut and University of Nevada Las Vegas)

Abstract

The effects of exchange rate risk have interested researchers, since the collapse of fixed exchange rates. Little consensus exists, however, regarding its effect on exports. Previous studies implicitly assume symmetry. This paper tests the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate risk with a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH(1,1)-M model. The asymmetry means that exchange rate risk (volatility) affects exports differently during appreciations and depreciations of the exchange rate. The data include bilateral exports from eight Asian countries to the US. The empirical results show that real exchange rate risk significantly affects exports for all countries, negative or positive, in periods of depreciation or appreciation. For five of the eight countries, the effects of exchange risk are asymmetric. Thus, policy makers can consider the stability of the exchange rate in addition to its depreciation as a method of stimulating export growth.

Suggested Citation

  • WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence," Working papers 2005-09, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2005-09
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    Cited by:

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    3. Bo Tang, 2015. "Exchange Rate Exposure of Chinese Firms at the Industry and Firm Level," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 592-607, August.
    4. Chia-Hsun Hsieh & Shian-Chang Huang, 2012. "Time-Varying Dependency and Structural Changes in Currency Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 94-127, March.
    5. Wong Hock Tsen, 2016. "Exchange rate volatilities and disaggregated bilateral exports of Malaysia to the United States: empirical evidence," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 289-314, August.
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    11. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
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    13. Grier, Kevin B. & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2013. "Exchange rate shocks and trade: A multivariate GARCH-M approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 282-305.
    14. Wang, Kai-Li & Fawson, Christopher & Chen, Mei-Ling & Wu, An-Chi, 2014. "Characterizing information flows among spot, deliverable forward and non-deliverable forward exchange rate markets: A cross-country comparison," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 115-137.
    15. Taiyo Yoshimi, 2014. "Lending Rate Spread Shock and Monetary Policy Arrangements: A Small Open Economy Model for ASEAN Countries," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 28(1), pages 19-39, March.

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    Keywords

    depreciation; exchange rate risk; exports; bivariate GARCH-M model;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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