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Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Changes: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization

Author

Listed:
  • WenShwo Fang

    () (Feng Chia University)

  • YiHao Lai

    () (Feng Chia University)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    () (University of Nevada, Las Vegas)

Abstract

Exchange rate movements affect exports in two ways—rate depreciation and rate variability (risk). A depreciation raises exports, but the associated exchange rate risk could offset that positive effect. The present paper investigates the net effect for eight Asian countries using a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH-M model that simultaneously estimates time-varying correlation and exchange rate risk. Depreciation encourages exports, as expected, for most countries, but its contribution to export growth is weak. Exchange rate risk contributes to export growth in Malaysia and the Philippines, leading to positive net effects. Exchange rate risk generates a negative effect for six of the countries, resulting in a negative net effect in Indonesia, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan and a zero net effect in Korea and Thailand.

Suggested Citation

  • WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Changes: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 611-626, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:72:3:y:2006:p:611-626
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabriel Pino & Dilara Tas & Subhash C. Sharma, 2016. "An investigation of the effects of exchange rate volatility on exports in East Asia," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(26), pages 2397-2411, June.
    2. Samba Mbaye, 2012. "Beggar-thy-Neighbor Effects of Currency Undervaluation: Is China the Tip of the Iceberg?," Working Papers halshs-00761380, HAL.
    3. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2011. "How do exchange rates co-move? A study on the currencies of five inflation-targeting countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 418-429, February.
    4. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    5. Anson, José & Boffa, Mauro & Helble, Matthias, 2014. "A Short-Run Analysis of Exchange Rates and International Trade with an Application to Australia, New Zealand, and Japan," ADBI Working Papers 471, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    6. Cimoli, Mario & Fleitas, Sebastian & Porcile, Gabriel, 2011. "Real Exchange Rate and the Structure of Exports," MPRA Paper 37846, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Huang, Xiaobing, 2017. "Exchange rate movements and export market dynamics: Evidence from China," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-13, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    8. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 577-605, July.
    9. Gullstrand, Joakim, 2011. "Firm and destination-specific export costs: The case of the Swedish food sector," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 204-213, April.
    10. repec:agr:journl:v:9(586):y:2013:i:9(586):p:39-50 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jonathan M. Chipili, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows in Zambia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 55-66, March.
    12. repec:zbw:ifweej:201723 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. P., Srinivasan & M., Kalaivani, 2012. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Export Growth in India: An Empirical Investigation," MPRA Paper 43828, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Freund, Caroline & Pierola, Martha Denisse, 2008. "Export surges : the oower of a competitive currency," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4750, The World Bank.
    15. Joseph Dery Nyeadi & Oswald Atiga & Charles Amoyea Atogenzoya, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on Export: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 41-48, July.
    16. Andrew Ojede, 2015. "Exchange Rate Shocks and U.S. Services and Agricultural Exports: Which Export Sector is More Affected?," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 228-250, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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