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Is There a Euro Effect on Trade? An Application of End-of-Sample Structural Break Tests for Panel Data

Whether trade has increased due to the Euro is a question at the heart of lively policy debates and academic research. We revisit the question with a new, more powerful econometric test for end-of-sample breaks to formally identify the timing and duration of the structural break implied by the ÒRose effectÓ on the Euro AreaÕs trade. We find a significant break in 1999Q1 when using a traditional gravity equa- tion, corroborating the general consensus in the literature. However, we find that this break is short lived. Furthermore, we show that the break can be explained both by the marked decrease in real interest rates across the Euro Area and by deepening European institutional integration.

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Paper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series IHEID Working Papers with number 04-2006.

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Length: 31
Date of creation: Apr 2006
Date of revision: Apr 2006
Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp04-2006
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  1. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  2. Alain Hecq & Franz Palm & Jean-Pierre Urbain, 2000. "Testing for Common Cyclical Features in Nonstationary Panel Data Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 248, CESifo Group Munich.
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  6. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
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  8. Kurt Hafner, 2008. "The pattern of international patenting and technology diffusion," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2819-2837.
  9. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-02, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  10. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
  11. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
  12. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro’s trade effects," Working Paper Series 0594, European Central Bank.
  13. Andrew K. Rose, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," NBER Working Papers 7432, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Badi H. Baltagi & Chihwa Kao, 2000. "Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels and Dynamic Panels: A Survey," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 16, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  15. Donald W.K. Andrews, 2002. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1369, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  16. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2003. "Cointegration Vector Estimation by Panel DOLS and Long-run Money Demand," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(5), pages 655-680, December.
  17. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 1995. "Is Regionalism Simply a Diversion? Evidence from the Evolution of the EC and EFTA," CEPR Discussion Papers 1294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. repec:cup:etheor:v:7:y:1991:i:1:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
  20. Peter Pedroni, 2004. "Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis," Department of Economics Working Papers 2004-15, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  21. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  22. Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Currency union entries and trade," Discussion Papers 2005/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  23. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
  24. Peter C.B. Phillips & Hyungsik R. Moon, 1999. "Linear Regression Limit Theory for Nonstationary Panel Data," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1222, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  25. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  26. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Borders, Trade and Welfare," NBER Working Papers 8515, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
  28. Andrews, Donald W K & Fair, Ray C, 1988. "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(4), pages 615-39, October.
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