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Is There a Euro Effect on Trade? An Application of End-of-Sample Structural Break Tests for Panel Data

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Abstract

Whether trade has increased due to the Euro is a question at the heart of lively policy debates and academic research. We revisit the question with a new, more powerful econometric test for end-of-sample breaks to formally identify the timing and duration of the structural break implied by the ÒRose effectÓ on the Euro AreaÕs trade. We find a significant break in 1999Q1 when using a traditional gravity equa- tion, corroborating the general consensus in the literature. However, we find that this break is short lived. Furthermore, we show that the break can be explained both by the marked decrease in real interest rates across the Euro Area and by deepening European institutional integration.

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  • Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Is There a Euro Effect on Trade? An Application of End-of-Sample Structural Break Tests for Panel Data," IHEID Working Papers 04-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heiwp04-2006
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    Cited by:

    1. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Tamazian, Artur & Kumar, Saten, 2010. "Systems GMM estimates of the Feldstein-Horioka puzzle for the OECD countries and tests for structural breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1269-1273, September.
    2. Theo S. Eicher & Christian Henn, 2011. "One Money, One Market: A Revised Benchmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 419-435, August.
    3. Richard E. Baldwin & Virginia Di Nino, 2006. "Euros and Zeros: The Common Currency Effect on Trade in New Goods," NBER Working Papers 12673, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, 2006. "Explaining the Euro's Effect on Trade? Interest Rates in an Augmented Gravity Equation," IHEID Working Papers 10-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    5. Verstegen, Loes & van Groezen, Bas & Meijdam, Lex, 2017. "Benefits of EMU Participation : Estimates using the Synthetic Control Method," Discussion Paper 2017-032, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    6. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:484-498 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bangake, Chrysost & Eggoh, Jude C., 2012. "Pooled Mean Group estimation on international capital mobility in African countries," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1), pages 7-17.
    8. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Matevz, Meze, 2009. "The Economic and Monetary Union’s effect on (international) trade: the case of Slovenia before euro adoption," MPRA Paper 17445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Saten Kumar & Mamta B. Chowdhury & B. Bhaskara Rao, 2013. "Demand for money in the selected OECD countries: a time series panel data approach and structural breaks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(14), pages 1767-1776, May.
    10. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "EMU and Trade Revisited: Long-Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1146-1164, September.
    11. Kumar, Saten, 2015. "Regional integration, capital mobility and financial intermediation revisited: Application of general to specific method in panel data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-17.
    12. Juan Pi??eiro Chousa, & Artur Tamazian, & Davit N. Melikyan,, 2008. "MARKET RISK DYNAMICS AND COMPETITIVENESS AFTER THE EURO: Evidence from EMU Members," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp916, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    13. Rao, B. Bhaskara & Tamazian, Artur & Singh, Prakash, 2009. "Demand for Money in the Asian Countries: A Systems GMM Panel Data Approach and Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 15030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2012. "EMU and intra-European trade. Long-run evidence using gravity equations," ThE Papers 10/25, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..

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    Keywords

    Gravity equation; International Trade; Common Currency; Structural break tests in panel data; Euro Area;

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