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Generalized Predictive Tests and Structural Change Analysis in Econometrics

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  • Dufour, Jean-Marie
  • Ghysels, Eric
  • Hall, Alastair

Abstract

A generalized predictive testing procedure for structural stability in nonlinear dynamic simultaneous equations models is presented. It has several attractive features: (1) the tests are based on easy-to-compute predicted residuals; (2) the prediction subsample can be arbitrarily small; (3) only consistency is required and allowance is made for data-based model selection; (4) it is possible to analyze the timing and form of structural change equation by equation or globally, allowing an exploratory analysis of structural change conveniently summarized in a predictive analysis table; and (5) general forms of temporal dependence between model disturbances are allowed. Copyright 1994 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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  • Dufour, Jean-Marie & Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1994. "Generalized Predictive Tests and Structural Change Analysis in Econometrics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 199-229, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:35:y:1994:i:1:p:199-229
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    Cited by:

    1. Ghysels, Eric & Guay, Alain, 2003. "Structural change tests for simulated method of moments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 91-123, July.
    2. Ghysels, E., 1995. "On Stable Factor Structurs in the Pricing of Risk," Cahiers de recherche 9525, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    3. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Pelletier, Denis & Renault, Eric, 2006. "Short run and long run causality in time series: inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(2), pages 337-362, June.
    4. Eric Ghysels & Alain Guay, 2001. "Testing for Structural Change in the Presence of Auxiliary Models," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 133, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    5. Benner, Joachim & Carstensen, Kai & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Oskamp, Frank & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Euroland: Recovery will slow down," Kiel Discussion Papers 415, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2006. "How Stable is the Forecasting Performance of the Yield Curve for Output Growth?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 783-795, December.
    7. Pauwels Laurent L. & Chan Felix & Mancini Griffoli Tommaso, 2012. "Testing for Structural Change in Heterogeneous Panels with an Application to the Euro's Trade Effect," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-35, November.
    8. Oliner, Stephen D. & Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Sichel, Daniel, 1996. "The Lucas critique revisited assessing the stability of empirical Euler equations for investment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 291-316, January.
    9. John M. Maheu & Stephen Gordon, 2008. "Learning, forecasting and structural breaks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 553-583.
    10. Garcia, Rene & Ghysels, Eric, 1998. "Structural change and asset pricing in emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 455-473, June.
    11. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Kiviet, Jan F., 1996. "Exact tests for structural change in first-order dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 39-68, January.
    12. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Alastair R. Hall & Denise R. Osborn & Nikolaos Sakkas, 2015. "Structural Break Inference Using Information Criteria in Models Estimated by Two-Stage Least Squares," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 741-762, September.
    13. N Aslanidis & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2003. "Explaining movements in UK stock prices: How important is the US market?," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 27, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
    14. Tommaso Mancini Griffoli, 2006. "Explaining the Euro's Effect on Trade? Interest Rates in an Augmented Gravity Equation," IHEID Working Papers 10-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    15. Patrick Richard, 2010. "Kernel smoothing end of sample instability tests P values," Cahiers de recherche 10-19, Departement d'Economique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    16. Benner, Joachim & Carstensen, Kai & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Oskamp, Frank & Scheide, Joachim, 2004. "Euroland: Konjunktur verliert wieder an Fahrt," Munich Reprints in Economics 20244, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    17. Colavecchio, Roberta & Carstensen, Kai, 2004. "Did the Revision of the ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Affect the Reaction Function?," Kiel Working Papers 1221, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    18. KUROZUMI, Eiji, 2017. "Confidence Sets for the Date of a Mean Shift at the End of a Sample," Discussion Papers 2017-06, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
    19. Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli & Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Is There a Euro Effect on Trade? An Application of End-of-Sample Structural Break Tests for Panel Data," IHEID Working Papers 04-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Apr 2006.

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