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Kernel smoothing end of sample instability tests P values

Author

Listed:
  • Patrick Richard

    (GREDI, Département d'économique, Université de Sherbrooke)

Abstract

A Monte Carlo investigation shows that the rejection probability of the structural stability test of Andrews (2003) depends on several characteristics of the DGP, one of which is the length of the hypothesized break period. This is analyzed and found to be caused, at least in part, by the fact that the number of subsampling statistics used to compute the P value depends on the sample size and the length of the break period. Simulations show that kernel smoothed P values provide more accurate tests in small samples.

Suggested Citation

  • Patrick Richard, 2010. "Kernel smoothing end of sample instability tests P values," Cahiers de recherche 10-19, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    • Handle: RePEc:shr:wpaper:10-19
    as

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    File URL: http://gredi.recherche.usherbrooke.ca/wpapers/GREDI-1019.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. D. W. K. Andrews, 2003. "End-of-Sample Instability Tests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1661-1694, November.
    2. Dufour, Jean-Marie & Ghysels, Eric & Hall, Alastair, 1994. "Generalized Predictive Tests and Structural Change Analysis in Econometrics," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(1), pages 199-229, February.
    3. Russell Davidson & James MacKinnon, 2000. "Bootstrap tests: how many bootstraps?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 55-68.
    4. Racine, Jeffrey S. & MacKinnon, James G., 2007. "Inference via kernel smoothing of bootstrap P values," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(12), pages 5949-5957, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Kernel smoothing; Simulation-based test; P value; Stability test;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

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