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Testing for Structural Change in Heterogeneous Panels with an Application to the Euro's Trade Effect

Author

Listed:
  • Pauwels Laurent L.

    (University of Sydney)

  • Chan Felix

    (Curtin University)

  • Mancini Griffoli Tommaso

    (Swiss National Bank)

Abstract

This paper presents a structural change test for panel data models in which the break (or the change) affects some, but not all, cross-section units in the panel. The test is robust to non-normal, heteroskedastic and autocorrelated errors, as well as end-of-sample structural change. The test amounts to computing and comparing pre- and post-break sample statistics as Chow (1960) type F statistics averaged over cross-section units. The cases of known and unknown break date are both considered. Under mild assumptions, the test has a limiting standard normal distribution as the number of cross-sections tends to infinity. Monte Carlo experiments show that the test has good size and power under a wide range of circumstances, including when the break date is unknown and differs across individual units, and when errors exhibit cross-section dependence. Finally, the test is illustrated by seeking a break in the dynamics of trade among euro area countries following the introduction of the euro.

Suggested Citation

  • Pauwels Laurent L. & Chan Felix & Mancini Griffoli Tommaso, 2012. "Testing for Structural Change in Heterogeneous Panels with an Application to the Euro's Trade Effect," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-35, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:jtsmet:v:4:y:2012:i:2:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/1941-1928.1141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Jiang, Peiyun & Kurozumi, Eiji, 2021. "A new test for common breaks in heterogeneous panel data models," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-107, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    3. Okui, Ryo & Wang, Wendun, 2021. "Heterogeneous structural breaks in panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 220(2), pages 447-473.
    4. Bada, O. & Kneip, A. & Liebl, D. & Mensinger, T. & Gualtieri, J. & Sickles, R.C., 2022. "A wavelet method for panel models with jump discontinuities in the parameters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 399-422.
    5. Baltagi, Badi H. & Feng, Qu & Kao, Chihwa, 2016. "Estimation of heterogeneous panels with structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(1), pages 176-195.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas, 2022. "Money Market Funds (MMFs) and the Covid-19 pandemic: Has the MMLF benefited money markets?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    7. Esposito, Piero & Messori, Marcello, 2016. "Improved Structural Competitiveness or Deep Recession? On the recent macroeconomic rebalances in the EMU," LEAP Working Papers 2016/3, Luiss Institute for European Analysis and Policy.
    8. Aparna Sengupta, 2017. "Testing for a Structural Break in a Spatial Panel Model," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, March.

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