IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/fubsbe/20055.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the EURO in Historical Perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Berger, Helge
  • Nitsch, Volker

Abstract

In 1999, eleven European countries formed the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU); they abandoned their national currencies and adopted a new common currency, the euro. Several recent papers argue that the introduction of the euro has led (by itself) to a sizable and statistically significant increase in trade between the member countries of EMU. In this paper, we put the trade effect of the euro in historical perspective. We argue that the creation of the EMU was a continuation (or culmination) of a series of previous policy changes that have led over the last five decades to greater economic integration among the countries that now constitute EMU. Using a data set that includes 22 industrial countries from 1948 to 2003, we find strong evidence of a gradual increase in trade intensity between European countries. Once we control for this trend in trade integration, the euro?s impact on trade disappears. Moreover, a significant part of the trend in European trade integration is explained by measurable policy changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the EURO in Historical Perspective," Discussion Papers 2005/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20055
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/22137/1/discpaper05_05.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mr. Hamid Faruqee, 2004. "Measuring the Trade Effects of EMU," IMF Working Papers 2004/154, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU [‘A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356.
    3. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2008. "Zooming out: The trade effect of the euro in historical perspective," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1244-1260, December.
    4. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    5. Andrew K. Rose & T. D. Stanley, 2005. "A Meta‐Analysis of the Effect of Common Currencies on International Trade," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 347-365, July.
    6. Sergio Nardis, 2004. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 625-649, September.
    7. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2002. "Does a currency union affect trade? The time-series evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1125-1151, June.
    8. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 446, European Central Bank.
    9. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute.
    10. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, August.
    11. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December.
    12. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    13. José De Sousa & Julie Lochard, 2004. "The currency union effect on trade and the FDI channel," Cahiers de la Maison des Sciences Economiques j04111, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1).
    14. Sergio Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, December.
    15. J. M. C. Santos Silva & Silvana Tenreyro, 2006. "The Log of Gravity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 641-658, November.
    16. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 434-448.
    17. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    18. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & Dorrucci, Ettore & Agur, Itai, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 40, European Central Bank.
    19. Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Currency union entries and trade," Discussion Papers 2005/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    20. David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland [‘Do domestic firms benefit from foreign direct investment? Evidence from Venezuela’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613.
    21. Dan Ben-David, 1993. "Equalizing Exchange: Trade Liberalization and Income Convergence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 108(3), pages 653-679.
    22. Francesco Paolo Mongelli & Ettore Dorrucci & Itai Agur, 2005. "What does European institutional integration tell us about trade integration?," Occasional Paper Series 40, European Central Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomáš Havránek, 2010. "Rose effect and the euro: is the magic gone?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 241-261, June.
    2. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro's Effects on Trade in a Dynamic Setting," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 5(1), pages 73-85, June.
    3. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
    4. Vicarelli, Claudio & De Santis, Roberta & De Nardis, Sergio, 2008. "The Single Currency's Effects on Eurozone Sectoral Trade: Winners and Losers?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-34.
    5. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Matevz, Meze, 2009. "The Economic and Monetary Union’s effect on (international) trade: the case of Slovenia before euro adoption," MPRA Paper 17445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Mohd Hussain Kunroo & Irfan Ahmad Sofi & Naushad Ali Azad, 2016. "Trade implications of the Euro in EMU countries: a panel gravity analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 391-413, May.
    7. Gil-Pareja, Salvador & Llorca-Vivero, Rafael & Martínez-Serrano, José Antonio, 2008. "Trade effects of monetary agreements: Evidence for OECD countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 733-755, May.
    8. Oluwole Owoye & Olugbenga A. Onafowora, 2014. "The Economic Impact Analysis of the Euro Currency on Twelve Member Countries of the European Union," Journal of Empirical Economics, Research Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 2(4), pages 229-244.
    9. Gavin Murphy & Iulia Siedschlaga, 2011. "Has the Euro Boosted Intra-Euro Area Exports? Evidence from Industry Data," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    10. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2016. "Currency unions and trade: A post-EMU reassessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 78-91.
    11. Tal Sadeh, 2014. "The euro’s effect on trade," European Union Politics, , vol. 15(2), pages 215-234, June.
    12. Jia Hou, 2020. "Revisiting the trade effects of the euro: data sources and various samples," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2731-2777, December.
    13. Baldwin, Richard & Taglioni, Daria, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5850, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Campbell, Douglas L. & Chentsov, Aleksandr, 2023. "Breaking badly: The currency union effect on trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Kelejian, Harry & Tavlas, George S. & Petroulas, Pavlos, 2012. "In the neighborhood: The trade effects of the Euro in a spatial framework," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 314-322.
    16. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    17. Felix Chan Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli Laurent L. Pauwels, 2006. "Stability Tests for Heterogeneous Panel Data," IHEID Working Papers 24-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised Dec 2006.
    18. Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, February.
    19. Araújo, Inácio Fernandes de & Jackson, Randall W. & Ferreira Neto, Amir B. & Perobelli, Fernando S., 2020. "European union membership and CO2 emissions: A structural decomposition analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 190-203.
    20. Athina Zervoyianni & Athanasios Anastasiou, 2009. "Convergence of shocks and trade in the enlarged European Union," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 79-114.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    monetary union; currency; euro; trade; European integration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20055. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fwfubde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.