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In the neighborhood: The trade effects of the Euro in a spatial framework

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  • Kelejian, Harry
  • Tavlas, George S.
  • Petroulas, Pavlos

Abstract

Trade is spatial in nature. However, when specifying trade regressions, spatial issues are typically not accounted for in a satisfactory way. We specify a trade model which relates to the effects that the introduction of the euro had on exports for the euro countries. Our model contains country pair fixed effects and error terms which are spatially and time autocorrelated, as well as heteroskedastic. Our spatial weighting matrix has unique characteristics. Our model also allows for endogenous regressors, and so we estimate it by an instrumental variable procedure. We find that the results of estimation are substantially affected when one accounts for statistical complications. Specifically, the intra euro effects on exports are significantly reduced and are only “borderline” significant. Also, dummy variables measuring the effects of EU membership on exports become insignificant. The results relating to other variables do not seem to be substantially affected. All of this suggests that, perhaps, the effects of currency unions on trade as described in the previous literature have been overstated.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelejian, Harry & Tavlas, George S. & Petroulas, Pavlos, 2012. "In the neighborhood: The trade effects of the Euro in a spatial framework," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1-2), pages 314-322.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:regeco:v:42:y:2012:i:1:p:314-322 DOI: 10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2011.09.007
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    Cited by:

    1. Miriam Camarero & Estrella Gómez-Herrera & Cecilio Tamarit, 2017. "New evidence on Trade and FDI: how large is the Euro effect?," Working Papers 1709, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    2. Kadiyali, Vrinda & Kosová, Renáta, 2013. "Inter-industry employment spillovers from tourism inflows," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 272-281.
    3. Sgrignoli, Paolo & Metulini, Rodolfo & Schiavo, Stefano & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2015. "The relation between global migration and trade networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 245-260.
    4. Parent, Olivier & LeSage, James P., 2012. "Spatial dynamic panel data models with random effects," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 727-738.
    5. Campbell, Douglas L., 2011. "Estimating the impact of currency unions on trade using a dynamic gravity framework," MPRA Paper 35531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Rodolfo Metulini, 2013. "Spatial gravity models for international trade: a panel analysis among OECD countries," ERSA conference papers ersa13p522, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Esposito, Piero, 2017. "Trade creation, trade diversion and imbalances in the EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 462-472.
    8. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2012. "EMU and intra-European trade. Long-run evidence using gravity equations," ThE Papers 10/25, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; EMU; Spatial econometrics; Panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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