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In the neighbourhood: the trade effects of the euro in a spatial framework

Author

Listed:
  • Harry Kelejian

    (University of Maryland)

  • George S. Tavlas

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Pavlos Petroulas

    (Bank of Greece)

Abstract

Trade is spatial in nature. However, when specifying trade regressions, spatial issues are typically not accounted for in a satisfactory way. We specify a trade model which relates to the effects that the introduction of the euro had on exports for the euro countries. Our model contains country pair fixed effects and error terms which are spatially and time autocorrelated, as well as heteroskedastic. Our spatial weighting matrix has unique characteristics. Our model also allows for endogenous regressors, and so we estimate it by an instrumental variable procedure. We find that the results of estimation are substantially affected when one accounts for statistical complications. Specifically, euro effects on exports are significantly reduced and are only "borderline" significant. Also, dummy variables measuring the effects of EU-membership on exports become insignificant. The results relating to other variables do not seem to be substantially affected. All of this suggests that, perhaps, the effects of currency unions on trade as described in the previous literature has been severely overstated.

Suggested Citation

  • Harry Kelejian & George S. Tavlas & Pavlos Petroulas, 2011. "In the neighbourhood: the trade effects of the euro in a spatial framework," Working Papers 136, Bank of Greece.
  • Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Sgrignoli, Paolo & Metulini, Rodolfo & Schiavo, Stefano & Riccaboni, Massimo, 2015. "The relation between global migration and trade networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 417(C), pages 245-260.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez-Herrera & Cecilio Tamarit, 2018. "New Evidence on Trade and FDI: how Large is the Euro Effect?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 451-467, April.
    3. Campbell, Douglas L., 2011. "Estimating the impact of currency unions on trade using a dynamic gravity framework," MPRA Paper 35531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Rodolphe Desbordes & Markus Eberhardt, 2019. "Gravity," Discussion Papers 2019-02, University of Nottingham, GEP.
    5. Rodolfo Metulini, 2013. "Spatial gravity models for international trade: a panel analysis among OECD countries," ERSA conference papers ersa13p522, European Regional Science Association.
    6. Inmaculada Martínez-Zarzoso, 2019. "The Euro and the CFA Franc: Evidence of Sectoral Trade Effects," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 483-504, July.
    7. Yin, Zhonghua & Wang, Fang & Gan, Jianbang, 2020. "Spatial spillover effects of global forest product trade," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    8. William Addessi & Bianca Biagi & Maria Giovanna Brandano, 2019. "Evaluating the effect of the introduction of the euro on tourist flows: A synthetic control approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 1554-1575, May.
    9. Jacques Sapir, 2018. "The EMU’s Twisted Foundations: How to Use and Misuse Economic Theory," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 29(5), pages 497-506, September.
    10. Parent, Olivier & LeSage, James P., 2012. "Spatial dynamic panel data models with random effects," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 727-738.
    11. Esposito, Piero, 2017. "Trade creation, trade diversion and imbalances in the EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 462-472.
    12. Chen, Na & Jin, Xiu & Zhuang, Xintian & Yuan, Ying, 2020. "Spatial pricing with multiple risk transmission channels and specific factors," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    13. Kadiyali, Vrinda & Kosová, Renáta, 2013. "Inter-industry employment spillovers from tourism inflows," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 272-281.
    14. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2012. "EMU and intra-European trade. Long-run evidence using gravity equations," ThE Papers 10/25, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade; EMU; Spatial Econometrics; Panel Data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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