IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

In the neighbourhood: the trade effects of the euro in a spatial framework

Listed author(s):
  • Harry Kelejian

    (University of Maryland)

  • George S. Tavlas

    ()

    (Bank of Greece)

  • Pavlos Petroulas

    ()

    (Bank of Greece)

Trade is spatial in nature. However, when specifying trade regressions, spatial issues are typically not accounted for in a satisfactory way. We specify a trade model which relates to the effects that the introduction of the euro had on exports for the euro countries. Our model contains country pair fixed effects and error terms which are spatially and time autocorrelated, as well as heteroskedastic. Our spatial weighting matrix has unique characteristics. Our model also allows for endogenous regressors, and so we estimate it by an instrumental variable procedure. We find that the results of estimation are substantially affected when one accounts for statistical complications. Specifically, euro effects on exports are significantly reduced and are only "borderline" significant. Also, dummy variables measuring the effects of EU-membership on exports become insignificant. The results relating to other variables do not seem to be substantially affected. All of this suggests that, perhaps, the effects of currency unions on trade as described in the previous literature has been severely overstated.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/BogEkdoseis/Paper2011136.pdf
File Function: Full Text
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Bank of Greece in its series Working Papers with number 136.

as
in new window

Length: 33
Date of creation: Aug 2011
Handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:136
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bankofgreece.gr

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as
in new window


  1. Mark J. Melitz, 2002. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," NBER Working Papers 8881, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
  3. Maurice J. G. Bun & Franc J. G. M. Klaassen, 2007. "The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 473-496, 08.
  4. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 1996. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," NBER Working Papers 5700, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. J Bradford Jensen & Andrew B Bernard, 2001. "Why Some Firms Export," Working Papers 01-05, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  6. Badi H. Baltagi & Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2005. "Estimating Models of Complex FDI: Are There Third-Country Effects?," Center for Policy Research Working Papers 73, Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University.
  7. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Euro Effects on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of Trade," Seminar Papers 750, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  8. Gene M. Grossman & Elhanan Helpman & Adam Szeidl, 2003. "Optimal Integration Strategies for the Multinational Firm," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2024, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  9. Reuven Glick & Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Does a currency union affect trade? the time series evidence," Working Paper Series 2001-13, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  10. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  11. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  12. Kelejian, Harry H. & Prucha, Ingmar R., 2004. "Estimation of simultaneous systems of spatially interrelated cross sectional equations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 118(1-2), pages 27-50.
  13. Richard Baldwin Virginia Di Nino, 2006. "Euros and zeros: The common currency effect on trade in new goods," IHEID Working Papers 21-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 31 Oct 2006.
  14. Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The Euro's Effect on Trade on a Dynamic Setting," ISAE Working Papers 80, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
  15. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the EURO in Historical Perspective," Discussion Papers 2005/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  16. Stephen G. Hall & Pavlos Petroulas, 2008. "Spatial Interdependencies of FDI Locations: A Lessening of the Tyranny of Distance?," Discussion Papers in Economics 08/28, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  17. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6511, Inter-American Development Bank.
  18. Volker Nitsch, 2002. "Honey, I Shrunk the Currency Union Effect on Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 457-474, 04.
  19. Matteo Bugamelli & Luigi Infante, 2003. "Sunk Costs of Exports," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 469, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  20. Markusen, James R. & Venables, Anthony J., 2007. "Interacting factor endowments and trade costs: A multi-country, multi-good approach to trade theory," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 333-354, November.
  21. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Harry H. Kelejian & Ingmar R. Prucha, 1995. "A Generalized Moments Estimator for the Autoregressive Parameter in a Spatial Model," Electronic Working Papers 95-001, University of Maryland, Department of Economics, revised Mar 1997.
  23. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo Ordoñez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  24. Richard Baldwin & Virginia DiNino & Lionel Fontagné & Roberto A. De Santis & Daria Taglioni, 2008. "Study on the Impact of the Euro on Trade and Foreign Direct Investment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 321, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  25. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2008. "Estimating regional trade agreement effects on FDI in an interdependent world," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 145(1-2), pages 194-208, July.
  26. Baldwin, Richard E. & Skudelny, Frauke & Taglioni, Daria, 2005. "Trade effects of the euro: evidence from sectoral data," Working Paper Series 0446, European Central Bank.
  27. Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2005. "A Spatial Theory of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1464-1491, December.
  28. David Greenaway & Richard Kneller, 2007. "Firm heterogeneity, exporting and foreign direct investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 117(517), pages 134-161, 02.
  29. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bog:wpaper:136. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christina Tsochatzi)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.