Does a Currency Union Affect Trade? The Time Series Evidence
Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering over 230 countries from 1948-97. During this sample over one hundred pairs of countries had currency union dissolutions; they experienced economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts to use a common currency experiences a doubling in bilateral trade.
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- Christopher M. Meissner, 2003.
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- Lopez-Cordova, J. Ernesto & Meissner, Chris, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt1b04r034, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
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- Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Rodney Thom & Brendan M. Walsh, 2001. "The effect of a common currency on trade : Ireland before and after the Sterling link," Working Papers 200110, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
- Charles Wyplosz, 1997. "EMU: Why and How It Might Happen," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(4), pages 3-21, Fall.
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