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Does a currency union affect trade? the time series evidence

  • Reuven Glick
  • Andrew K. Rose

Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? We answer this question using a large annual panel data set covering 217 countries from 1948 through 1997. During this sample a large number of countries left currency unions; they experienced economically and statistically significant declines in bilateral trade, after accounting for other factors. Assuming symmetry, we estimate that a pair of countries that starts to use a common currency experiences a near doubling in bilateral trade.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its series Working Paper Series with number 2001-13.

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Date of creation: 2001
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in European Economic Review, Vol. 46, No. 6 , June 2002, Pages 1125-1151
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2001-13
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  1. Wyplosz, Charles, 1997. "EMU: Why and How It Might Happen," CEPR Discussion Papers 1685, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. J. Ernesto L�pez-C�rdova and Chris Meissner., 2000. "Exchange-Rate Regimes and International Trade: Evidence from the Classical Gold Standard Era," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C00-118, University of California at Berkeley.
  3. Rodney Thom & Brendan Walsh, 2001. "The Effect of a Common Currency on Trade - Ireland before and after the Sterling Link," Working Papers 200110, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  4. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461, October.
  5. Rose, Andrew K, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 2329, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Torsten Persson, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: how large is the treatment effect?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 433-462, October.
  7. Martin Feldstein, 1998. "The Political Economy of the European Economic and Monetary Union: Political Sources of an Economic Liability," NBER Working Papers 6150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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