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The Euro's Effect on Trade on a Dynamic Setting

Author

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  • Sergio de Nardis

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

  • Roberta De Santis

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

  • Claudio Vicarelli

    (ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses)

Abstract

This paper provides an update of de Nardis and Vicarelli (2003) estimates of the euro effect on trade integration of EMU economies, taking into account aggregate bilateral exports of 23 OECD countries for the sample period 1988-2003. In this paper we utilize the dynamic panel data estimator proposed by Blundell and Bond (1998) and introduce controls for heterogeneity. The results of our dynamic specification of the gravity equation lead to an estimate of the intra-Eurozone pro-trade effect, following the adoption of the single currency, as high as around 4%. This finding, slightly lower than our previous work results, is in line with very recent empirical literature using dynamic specification of gravity equation. It is also consistent with the already tight trade links characterizing the economies that embraced the euro and with the possibility that the trade impact involved the introduction of new goods rather than the expansion, due to lower transaction costs, of the incumbent products.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio de Nardis & Roberta De Santis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2007. "The Euro's Effect on Trade on a Dynamic Setting," ISAE Working Papers 80, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    • Handle: RePEc:isa:wpaper:80
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    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Bugamelli & Fabiano Schivardi & Roberta Zizza, 2010. "The Euro and Firm Restructuring," NBER Chapters,in: Europe and the Euro, pages 99-138 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Tomasz Brodzicki & Stanislaw Uminski, 2013. "International trade relations of enterprises established in Poland's regions: gravity model panel estimation," Working Papers 1301, Instytut Rozwoju, Institute for Development.
    3. Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, February.
    4. repec:oup:oxecpp:v:69:y:2017:i:4:p:1054-1077. is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Glick, Reuven & Rose, Andrew K., 2016. "Currency unions and trade: A post-EMU reassessment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 78-91.
    6. Roberta De Santis, 2012. "Impact of Environmental Regulations on Trade in the Main EU Countries: Conflict or Synergy?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(7), pages 799-815, July.
    7. Vicarelli, Claudio & De Santis, Roberta & De Nardis, Sergio, 2008. "The Single Currency's Effects on Eurozone Sectoral Trade: Winners and Losers?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-34.
    8. Michele Sabatino, 2016. "The de-industrialization process in South Italy and the new industrial policies in Europe," ERSA conference papers ersa16p885, European Regional Science Association.
    9. Huang Li-Hsuan & Huang Yu-Tzu, 2015. "Impact of Unemployment on Crime in Europe," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(57), pages 3-36, September.
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    11. Mohd Hussain Kunroo & Irfan Ahmad Sofi & Naushad Ali Azad, 2016. "Trade implications of the Euro in EMU countries: a panel gravity analysis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 43(2), pages 391-413, May.
    12. Aristovnik, Aleksander & Matevz, Meze, 2009. "The Economic and Monetary Union’s effect on (international) trade: the case of Slovenia before euro adoption," MPRA Paper 17445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. María Pía Olivero & Yoto V. Yotov, 2012. "Dynamic gravity: endogenous country size and asset accumulation," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 45(1), pages 64-92, February.
    14. Douglas L. Campbell, 2010. "History, Culture, and Trade: A Dynamic Gravity Approach," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_26, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    15. Sergio de Nardis & Carmine Pappalardo & Claudio Vicarelli, 2008. "The Euro adoption’s impact on extensive and intensive margins of trade: the Italian case," ISAE Working Papers 101, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY).
    16. Figiel, Szczepan & Hamulczuk, Mariusz & Klimkowski, Cezary & Kufel, Justyna, 2014. "Potential Trade Implications Of Joining The Euro Zone For The Polish Agro-Food Sector," 2014 International Congress, August 26-29, 2014, Ljubljana, Slovenia 182836, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    17. Esposito, Piero, 2017. "Trade creation, trade diversion and imbalances in the EMU," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 462-472.
    18. Almudena Martinez-Campillo & Mª del Pilar Sierra-Fernández, 2012. "Impact of European Integration Process in Spain," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2), pages 57-80.
    19. Mohd Hussain Kunrooa & Naushad Ali Azad, 2015. "Impact of Single Currency Adoption on Trade Flows: The Panel Data Evidence," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 3(9), pages 433-439, September.
    20. Benjamin Jung, 2009. "Adjustment Dynamics of Bilateral Trade Flows: Theory and Evidence," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 145(IV), pages 421-442, December.
    21. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & De Santis, Roberta & Girardi, Alessandro, 2015. "Trade intensity and output synchronisation: On the endogeneity properties of EMU," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 154-163.
    22. Esposito, Piero, 2015. "Trade (dis)Integration and Imbalances in the EMU," SEP Working Papers 2015/7, LUISS School of European Political Economy.
    23. Puiu, Cristina, 2010. "Endogenitatea criteriilor teoriei zonei monetare optime
      [The endogeneity of the optimum currency area criteria]      ," MPRA Paper 28470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Mariam Camarero & Estrella Gómez & Cecilio Tamarit, 2013. "EMU and Trade Revisited: Long-Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(9), pages 1146-1164, September.
    25. Claudio, Vicarelli & Carmine, Pappalardo, 2012. "Euro introduction and export behaviour of Italian firms," MPRA Paper 43386, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    International Trade; Currency Unions; Gravity models; Dynamic Panel Data;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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