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Stability Tests for Heterogeneous Panel Data

  • Felix Chan

    (School of Economics and Finance, Curtin University of Technology)

  • Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli

    (Swiss National Bank, Paris School of Economics (PSE), CEPREMAP)

  • Laurent L. Pauwels

    (Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva)

This paper proposes a new test for structural stability in panels by extending the testing procedure proposed in the seminal work of Andrews (2003) originally developed for time series. The test is robust to non-normal, heteroskedastic and serially correlated errors, and, importantly, allows for the number of post break observations to be small. Moreover, the test accommodates the possibility of a break affecting only some - and not all - individuals of the panel. Under mild assumptions the test statistic is shown to be asymptotically normal, thanks to the cross sectional dimension of panel data. This greatly facilitates the calculation of critical values with respect to the test's time series counterpart. Monte Carlo experiments show that the test has good size and power under a wide range of circumstances. Finally, the test is illustrated in practice, in a brief study of the euro's effect on trade.

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Paper provided by Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research in its series Working Papers with number 092008.

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Length: 31 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hkm:wpaper:092008
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  1. Berger, Helge & Nitsch, Volker, 2005. "Zooming Out: The Trade Effect of the EURO in Historical Perspective," Discussion Papers 2005/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
  3. Chihwa Kao & Lorenzo Trapani & Giovanni Urga, 2007. "Modelling and Testing for Structural Changes in Panel Cointegration Models with Common and Idiosyncratic Stochastic Trends," Working Papers 0708, Department of Economics and Technology Management, University of Bergamo.
  4. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  5. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran, 2006. "Estimation and Inference in Large Heterogeneous Panels with a Multifactor Error Structure," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 967-1012, 07.
  7. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  8. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6511, Inter-American Development Bank.
  9. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
  10. Jerry Coakley & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Ron Smith, 2002. "A Principal Components Approach to Cross-Section Dependence in Panels," 10th International Conference on Panel Data, Berlin, July 5-6, 2002 B5-3, International Conferences on Panel Data.
  11. Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  12. Stefan de Wachter & Elias Tzavalis, 2004. "Detection of Structural Breaks in Linear Dynamic Panel Data Models," Working Papers 505, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  13. David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613, October.
  14. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
  15. Sergio Nardis & Claudio Vicarelli, 2003. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 139(4), pages 625-649, December.
  16. Vinhas de Souza, Lúcio, 2002. "Trade effects of monetary integration in large, mature economies: a primer on the European Monetary Union," Kiel Working Papers 1137, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  17. Han, Aaron K & Park, Daekeun, 1989. "Testing for Structural Change in Panel Data: Application to a Study of U.S. Foreign Trade in Manufacturing Goods," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 135-42, February.
  18. Sergio Nardis, 2004. "Currency unions and trade: The special case of EMU," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 140(3), pages 625-649, September.
  19. Rose, Andrew, 1999. "One Money, One Market: Estimating the Effect of Common Currencies on Trade," Seminar Papers 678, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  20. Baldwin, Richard E., 2006. "The euro’s trade effects," Working Paper Series 0594, European Central Bank.
  21. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  22. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
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