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Enlarging the EMU to the East: What Effects on Trade?

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  • Belke, Ansgar H.

    () (University of Duisburg-Essen)

  • Spies, Julia

    () (Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW))

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to assess the implications of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) accession of eight Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) on their share in EMU-12 imports. Overcoming biases related to endogeneity, omitted variables and sample selection, our results indicate that the common currency has boosted intra-EMU imports by 7%. Under the assumption that the same relationship between the explanatory variables and imports will hold for EMU-CEEC trade, we are able to predict the future impact of the Euro. Our findings suggest that except for the least integrated countries, Poland, Latvia and Lithuania, all CEECs can expect increases in the EMU-12 import share.

Suggested Citation

  • Belke, Ansgar H. & Spies, Julia, 2008. "Enlarging the EMU to the East: What Effects on Trade?," IZA Discussion Papers 3647, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp3647
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    Cited by:

    1. Breusch, Trevor & Ward, Michael B. & Nguyen, Hoa Thi Minh & Kompas, Tom, 2011. "On the Fixed-Effects Vector Decomposition," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(02), pages 123-134, March.
    2. Andrew K. Rose, 2017. "Why do Estimates of the EMU Effect on Trade Vary so Much?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(1), pages 1-18, February.
    3. Fritz Breuss, 2007. "A Prototype Model of EU's 2007 Enlargement," FIW Working Paper series 007, FIW.
    4. Rainer Schweickert & Inna Melnykovska & Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon, 2011. "Prospective NATO or EU membership and institutional change in transition countries," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 19(4), pages 667-692, October.
    5. Estrella Gómez & Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2012. "EMU impact of on third countries’ exports. A gravity approach," ThE Papers 10/26, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
    6. Timo Mitze, 2009. "Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0083, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Cieślik Andrzej & Michałek Jan & Michałek Anna, 2014. "Does the Common Currency Increase Exports? Evidence from Firm-Level Data," International Journal of Management and Economics, De Gruyter Open, pages 8-22.
    8. Mitze, Timo, 2010. "Estimating Gravity Models of International Trade with Correlated Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," MPRA Paper 23540, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Ansgar Belke & Ingo Bordon & Inna Melnykovska & Rainer Schweickert, 2009. "Prospective NATO or EU Membership and Institutional Change in Transition Countries," Ruhr Economic Papers 0131, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    10. repec:zbw:rwirep:0084 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Nuria Gallego & Carlos Llano, 2014. "The Border Effect and the Nonlinear Relationship between Trade and Distance," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, pages 1016-1048.
    12. Katarzyna Śledziewska & Bartosz Witkowski, 2012. "Does Monetary Integration Have an Effect EU\’s Trade Change During Economic Crises?," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 30.
    13. Mihai Rebiga, 2010. "Is Romania Ready for Adopting Euro?," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 15.
    14. repec:zbw:rwirep:0083 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Mitze, Timo, 2009. "Endogeneity in Panel Data Models with Time-Varying and Time-Fixed Regressors: To IV or not IV?," Ruhr Economic Papers 83, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    16. Zaenal Mutaqin & Masaru Ichihashi, 2013. "Widening and Deepening Economic Integration Impact on Bilateral Trade in the Eurozone and ASEAN," IDEC DP2 Series 3-3, Hiroshima University, Graduate School for International Development and Cooperation (IDEC).
    17. Fritz Breuss, 2009. "An evaluation of the EU's Fifth Enlargement With special focus on Bulgaria and Romania," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 361, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    18. Timo Mitze & Björn Alecke & Gerhard Untiedt, 2009. "Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 0084, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    19. Andrzej Cieslik & Jan Michalek & Anna Michalek, 2013. "The Impact Of The Common Currency On Exports Of New Emu Members: Firm-Level Evidence For Slovenia And Slovakia," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, pages 7-23.
    20. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2009. "Trade-FDI Linkages in a System of Gravity Equations for German Regional Data," Ruhr Economic Papers 84, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    21. Mitze, Timo & Alecke, Björn & Untiedt, Gerhard, 2008. "Trade, FDI and Cross-Variable Linkages: A German (Macro-)Regional Perspective," MPRA Paper 12245, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Jungmittag, Andre, 2014. "Der Trade-off zwischen deutschen Direktinvestitionen und Exporten: Wie wichtig sind die verschiedenen Dimensionen der Distanz?," Working Paper Series: Business and Law 04, Frankfurt University of Applied Sciences, Faculty of Business and Law.
    23. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, August.
    24. Natalia Drzewoszewska, 2016. "Związki przyczynowo-skutkowe między bilateralnymi przepływami handlu, bezpośrednich inwestycji zagranicznych i migracji w państwach rozwiniętych," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 41, pages 203-220.
    25. repec:zbw:rwirep:0131 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Euro area enlargement; Central and Eastern European countries; gravity model; panel estimation;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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