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The Estimated Trade Effects of the Euro: Why Are They Below Those From Historical Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?

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  • Jeffrey Frankel

Abstract

Andy Rose (2000), followed by many others, has used the gravity model of bilateral trade on a large data set to estimate the trade effects of monetary unions among small countries. The finding has been large estimates: Trade among members seems to double or triple, that is, to increase by 100-200%. After the advent of EMU in 1999, Micco, Ordoñez and Stein and others used the gravity model on a much smaller data set to estimate the effects of the euro on trade among its members. The estimates tend to be statistically significant, but far smaller in magnitude: on the order of 10-20% during the first four years. What explains the discrepancy? This paper seeks to address two questions. First, do the effects on intra-euroland trade that were estimated in the euro’s first four years hold up in the second four years? The answer is yes. Second, and more complicated, what is the reason for the big discrepancy vis-à-vis other currency unions? We investigate three prominent possible explanations for the gap between 15% and 200%. First, lags. The euro is still very young. Second, size. The European countries are much bigger on average than most of those who had formed currency unions in the past. Third, endogeneity of the decision to adopt an institutional currency link. Perhaps the high correlations estimated in earlier studies were spurious, an artefact of reverse causality. Contrary to expectations, we find no evidence that any of these factors explains a substantial share of the gap, let alone all of it.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey Frankel, 2009. "The Estimated Trade Effects of the Euro: Why Are They Below Those From Historical Monetary Unions Among Smaller Countries?," Europe in Question Discussion Paper Series of the London School of Economics (LEQs) 7, London School of Economics / European Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:erp:leqsxx:p0007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Piotr Gabrielczak & Tomasz Serwach, 2017. "Does the euro increase the complexity of exported goods? The case of Estonia," Lodz Economics Working Papers 4/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    3. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry, 2020. "Aftershocks of monetary unification: Hysteresis with a financial twist," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    4. Piotr Gabrielczak & Tomasz Serwach, 2017. "The impact of the euro adoption on the complexity of goods in Slovenian exports," Lodz Economics Working Papers 3/2017, University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology.
    5. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    6. Gomez-Gonzalez, Patricia & Rees, Daniel M., 2018. "Same Spain, less pain?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 78-107.
    7. Lavinia Rotili, 2014. "The Euro effects on intermediate and final exports," Working Papers 7/14, Sapienza University of Rome, DISS.
    8. Saia, Alessandro, 2017. "Choosing the open sea: The cost to the UK of staying out of the euro," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 82-98.
    9. Julie Lochard, 2016. "Intégration et échanges internationaux : effets contemporains et persistants," Erudite HDR / Erudite Accreditation to supervise Ph.D., Erudite, number hd16-01 edited by Jean-François Jacques, June.
    10. Gächter, Martin & Riedl, Aleksandra, 2014. "One money, one cycle? The EMU experience," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 141-155.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    federalism; trade policy; EMU; EMU;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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