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Trade Flows, Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries

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  • Mustafa Caglayan

    () (Department of Economics, The University of Sheffield)

  • Omar S. Dahi

    (Hampshire College)

  • Firat Demir

    (University of Oklahoma)

Abstract

We investigate the effects of real exchange rate uncertainty and financial depth on manufactures exports from 28 emerging economies to the North and South over 1978-2005. We estimate a dynamic panel model using system GMM approach and show that for the majority of countries in our sample exchange rate uncertainty affects both South-South and South-North trade negatively. Furthermore, for several cases we discover that this effect is unidirectional, that is South-South or South-North. In addition, we find that while financial depth plays a trade-enhancing role, exchange rate shocks can negate this effect. We also show that trade among developing economies is likely to enhance export growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Mustafa Caglayan & Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2010. "Trade Flows, Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Financial Depth: Evidence from 28 Emerging Countries," Working Papers 2010011, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:shf:wpaper:2010011
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Bing Xu, 2017. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Financial Institutions," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 939, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2018.
    2. Smallwood, Aaron D., 2019. "Analyzing exchange rate uncertainty and bilateral export growth in China: A multivariate GARCH-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 332-344.
    3. Caglayan, Mustafa & Demir, Firat, 2014. "Firm Productivity, Exchange Rate Movements, Sources of Finance, and Export Orientation," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 204-219.
    4. Omar S. Dahi & Firat Demir, 2017. "South–South And North–South Economic Exchanges: Does It Matter Who Is Exchanging What And With Whom?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 1449-1486, December.
    5. Demir Firat & Wu Chen, 2017. "Exchange Rate Adjustments and US Trade with China: What does a State Level Analysis Tell Us?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 1-14, June.
    6. Demir, Firat, 2013. "Growth under exchange rate volatility: Does access to foreign or domestic equity markets matter?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 74-88.
    7. Mustafa Caglayan & Firat Demir, 2011. "Firm productivity, exchange rate movements, sources of finance and export orientationInventories and sales uncertainty," Working Papers 2011004, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
    8. Sayef Bakari & Sofien Tiba, 2020. "Are Exchange Rate, Exports and Domestic Investment in Tunisia Cointegrated? A Comparison of ECM and ARDL Model," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 10(1), pages 33-43, June.
    9. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Regime Dependent Effects of Inflation Uncertainty on Real Growth: A Markov Switching Approach," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 63(2), pages 135-155, May.
    10. Mustafa Caglayan & Ozge Kandemir & Kostas Mouratidis, 2011. "Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US," Working Papers 2011002, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
    11. Grier, Kevin B. & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2013. "Exchange rate shocks and trade: A multivariate GARCH-M approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 282-305.
    12. Joseph Dery Nyeadi & Oswald Atiga & Charles Amoyea Atogenzoya, 2014. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Movement on Export: Empirical Evidence from Ghana," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 4(3), pages 41-48, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trade flows; Exchange rate uncertainty; South-South trade; Financial depth; Dynamic panel data;

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology

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