The Volatility of International Trade Flows and Exchange Rate Uncertainty
Empirical evidence obtained from data covering Eurozone countries, other industrialized countries, and newly industrialized countries (NICs) over 1980–2006 shows that exchange rate uncertainty has a consistent positive and significant effect on the volatility of bilateral trade ﬂows. A one standard deviation increase in exchange rate uncertainty leads to an eight per cent increase in trade volatility. These effects differ markedly for trade ﬂows between industrialized countries and NICs, and are not mitigated by the presence of the Eurozone. Contrary to earlier ﬁndings, our results also suggest that exchange rate uncertainty does not affect the volume of trade ﬂows of either industrialized countries or NICs.
|Date of creation:||27 Nov 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Boston College, 140 Commonwealth Avenue, Chestnut Hill MA 02467 USA|
Web page: http://fmwww.bc.edu/EC/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 2006.
"On the Sensitivity of the Volume and Volatility of Bilateral Trade Flows to Exchange Rate Uncertainty,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
641, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Feb 2008.
- Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2010. "On the sensitivity of the volume and volatility of bilateral trade flows to exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 79-93, February.
- Caglayan, M. & Baum, C.F. & Barkoulas, J.T., 1998.
"Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows,"
1998/05, Koc University.
- Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2002. "Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, August.
- John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 405., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Sep 2001.
- Kevin B. Grier & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2007. "Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 965-979, 06.
- Sercu, Piet & Vanhulle, Cynthia, 1992. "Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-182, February.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Shang-Jin Wei, 1993.
"Emerging Currency Blocs,"
NBER Working Papers
4335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233209, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1993. "Emerging Currency Blocs," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-026, University of California at Berkeley.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999.
"Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Adrian Pagan, 1986.
"Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 517-538.
- Adrian Pagan, 1985. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 741, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Mustafa Caglayan & Jing Di, 2010.
"Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Sectoral Trade Flows?,"
Southern Economic Journal,
Southern Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 313-335, October.
- Mustafa Caglayan & Jing Di, 2008. "Does Real Exchange Rate Volatility Affect Sectoral Trade Flows?," Working Papers 2008011, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
- Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, 09.
- Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
- Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992.
"International trade and exchange rate volatility,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August.
- Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
- Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003.
"The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
187, Royal Economic Society.
- Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2000.
"Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
488, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Jul 2002.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1998.
"Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows; Evidence From the European Union,"
IMF Working Papers
98/107, International Monetary Fund.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 5.
- Wei, Shang-Jin, 1999.
"Currency hedging and goods trade,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1371-1394, June.
- Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
- Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
- Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Azim M. Sadikov & Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 235, International Monetary Fund.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
- Engel, Charles & Wang, Jian, 2007. "International trade in durable goods: understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elastics," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 03, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Christopher F. Baum & Vince Wiggins, 2001. "Tests for long memory in a time series," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(57).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boc:bocoec:695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F Baum)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.