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Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Aftab
  • Karim Bux Shah Syed
  • Naveed Akhter Katper

Abstract

Purpose - After the fall of fix exchange rate regime in early 1970s, the nexus between the exchange rate volatility and trade flows has been of a great interest to the policy makers and researchers. Resultantly an extensive literature is available on the topic. However, the research findings are inconclusiveness so far. The purpose of this paper is to examine the exchange-rate volatility and bilateral industry trade link between the two important countries of Southeast Asia, i.e. Malaysia and Thailand. Design/methodology/approach - This study employs Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) (1,?1) to measure exchange rate volatility and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to study the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. ARDL approach is suitable to accommodate the mix cases (i.e. stationary and first difference stationary). The paper considers 62 Malaysian exporting and 60 Malaysian importing industries with Thailand over the monthly period 2000-2013. Findings - Findings suggest the influence of exchange-rate volatility on the trade flows in a limited number of industries. Large industries like instruments and apparatus experience negative influence from exchange-rate volatility. Originality/value - Past literature continued to be inconclusiveness on the nexus between exchange-rate volatility and trade flows due to its over-reliance on the aggregated data. Besides, the past studies are more based on quarterly or yearly frequency data. These issues contribute to the aggregation bias. This research focusses on a country bilateral trade pair, using industry level disaggregated monthly data. Such research is rare in Malaysian-Thai bilateral trade context. This study uses a suitable estimation approach and also draws valuable implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Naveed Akhter Katper, 2017. "Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 99-114, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jespps:jes-05-2015-0091
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey, 2018. "Do inpayments and outpayments respond to exchange rate changes asymmetrically: Evidence from Malaysia," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 317-342, August.
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    5. Bahmani-Oskooee Mohsen & Harvey Hanafiah, 2017. "The Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Trade Balance of Singapore," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 17(4), pages 1-11, December.
    6. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki Nayeri, 2018. "Policy Uncertainty and the Demand for Money in Korea: An Asymmetry Analysis," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(2), pages 219-234, April.
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    10. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Karamelikli, Huseyin, 2018. "Japan-U.S. trade balance at commodity level and asymmetric effects of Yen-Dollar rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-10.
    11. Rashid Latief & Lin Lefen, 2018. "The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Developing Countries along “One Belt and One Road”," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(4), pages 1-22, October.
    12. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Gelan, Abera, 2018. "Exchange-rate volatility and international trade performance: Evidence from 12 African countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 14-21.
    13. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Hadj Amor, Thouraya & Maki Nayeri, Majid & Niroomand, Farhang, 2019. "On the link between real effective value of Tunisia’s Dinar and its sectoral trade with the rest of the world: New evidence from asymmetry analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 111-118.
    14. Pham, Tuan & Tran, Thi Ha, 2018. "Impact of Exchange Rate on Vietnam-China Bilateral Trade: Findings from ARDL Approach," MPRA Paper 87457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Duc Hong Vo & Anh The Vo & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2019. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Disaggregated Manufacturing Exports: Evidence from an Emerging Country," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, January.
    16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hadiseh Fariditavana, 2019. "How sensitive are the U.S. inpayments and outpayments to real exchange rate changes: an asymmetry analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 619-647, October.
    17. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Seyed Hesam Ghodsi, 2018. "Asymmetric Causality between Unemployment Rate and House Prices in each State of the U.S," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 21(1), pages 71-92.
    18. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Niloy Bose & Yun Zhang, 2018. "Asymmetric Cointegration, Nonlinear ARDL, and the J-Curve: A Bilateral Analysis of China and Its 21 Trading Partners," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(13), pages 3131-3151, October.
    19. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Motavallizadeh-Ardakani, Amid, 2017. "On the value of the dollar and income inequality: Asymmetric evidence from state level data in the U.S," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 64-78.
    20. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Scott W. Hegerty, 2018. "The real peso–dollar rate and US–Mexico industry trade: an asymmetric analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(4), pages 350-389, September.
    21. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Hanafiah Harvey & Farhang Niroomand, 2018. "On the Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Oil Prices: An Asymmetry Analysis," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(1), pages 1-11, January.
    22. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Thouraya Hadj Amor & Hanafiah Harvey & Huseyin Karamelikli, 2019. "Is there a J-curve effect in Tunisia’s bilateral trade with her partners? New evidence from asymmetry analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 1-18, February.
    23. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Majid Maki-Nayeri, 2018. "Asymmetric Effects of Policy Uncertainty on the Demand for Money in the United States," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(1), pages 1-13, December.

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