On the sensitivity of the volume and volatility of bilateral trade flows to exchange rate uncertainty
We present an empirical investigation of the hypotheses that exchange rate uncertainty may have an impact on both the volume and variability of trade flows by considering a broad set of industrial countries' bilateral real trade flows over the period 1980-1998. Similar to the findings of earlier theoretical and empirical research, our first set of results shows that the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on trade flows is indeterminate. Our second set of results provides new and novel findings that exchange rate uncertainty has a consistent positive and significant effect on the volatility of bilateral trade flows, helping us better understand macroeconomic volatility.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004.
"Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
- Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2000. "Nonlinear Effects of Exchange Rate Volatility on the Volume of Bilateral Exports," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 488, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 30 Jul 2002.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
- Peter B. Clark & Shang-Jin Wei & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Azim M. Sadikov & Li Zeng, 2004. "A New Look at Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows," IMF Occasional Papers 235, International Monetary Fund.
- Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993.
"Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May.
- Joseph E. Gagnon, 1989. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 369, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Sauer, Christine & Bohara, Alok K, 2001. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: Regional Differences between Developing and Industrialized Countries," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(1), pages 133-52, February.
- Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007.
"On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
- Silvana Tenreyro, 2003. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Working Papers 03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Peter C.B. Phillips, 1999.
"Unit Root Log Periodogram Regression,"
Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers
1244, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Zimmermann, Christian, 1999.
"International Business Cycles and Exchange Rates,"
Review of International Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(4), pages 682-98, November.
- Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, 09.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1998.
"Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence From the European Union,"
IMF Working Papers
98/107, International Monetary Fund.
- Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, 1999. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Trade Flows: Evidence from the European Union," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(3), pages 5.
- Wei, Shang-Jin, 1999.
"Currency hedging and goods trade,"
European Economic Review,
Elsevier, vol. 43(7), pages 1371-1394, June.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel and Shang-Jin Wei., 1993.
"Emerging Currency Blocs,"
Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers
C93-026, University of California at Berkeley.
- John Barkoulas & Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan, 1998.
"Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
405., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 Sep 2001.
- Barkoulas, John T. & Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2002. "Exchange rate effects on the volume and variability of trade flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 481-496, August.
- Caglayan, M. & Baum, C.F. & Barkoulas, J.T., 1998. "Exchange Rate Effects on the Volume and Variability of Trade Flows," Papers 1998/05, Koc University.
- Christopher F Baum, 2000. "FRACDIFF: Stata module to generate fractionally-differenced timeseries," Statistical Software Components S413901, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 24 Mar 2006.
- Philippe BACCHETTA & Eric VAN WINCOOP, 1999.
"Does Exchange Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare ?,"
Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP)
9917, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2000. "Does Exchange-Rate Stability Increase Trade and Welfare?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1093-1109, December.
- Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
- Viaene, J-M. & De Vries, C.G., 1989.
"International Trade And Exchange Rate Volatility,"
8905, Erasmus University of Rotterdam - Institute for Economic Research.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1986.
"Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(4), pages 517-38, August.
- Adrian Pagan, 1985. "Two Stage and Related Estimators and Their Applications," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 741, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Baron, David P, 1976. "Fluctuating Exchange Rates and the Pricing of Exports," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 14(3), pages 425-38, September.
- Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-47, February.
- Christopher F. Baum & Vince Wiggins, 2001. "Tests for long memory in a time series," Stata Technical Bulletin, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(57).
- Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
- Kevin B. Grier & Aaron D. Smallwood, 2007. "Uncertainty and Export Performance: Evidence from 18 Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 965-979, 06.
- Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
- Sercu, Piet & Vanhulle, Cynthia, 1992. "Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-182, February.
- Charles Engel & Jian Wang, 2007. "International trade in durable goods: understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elastics," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 03, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:29:y:2010:i:1:p:79-93. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.