Exchange Rates, International Trade And Trade Policies
The exchange rate plays an important role in a country’s trade performance. Whether determined by exogenous shocks or by policy, the relative valuations of currencies and their volatility often have important repercussions on international trade, the balance of payments and overall economic performance. This paper investigates the importance of exchange rates on international trade by analysing the impact that exchange rate volatility and misalignment have on trade and then by exploring whether exchange rate misalignments affect governments’ decisions regarding trade policies. The methodology consists of estimating fixed effects models on a detailed panel dataset comprising about 100 countries and covering 10 years (2000-2009). The findings of this study are generally in line with those of the recent literature in supporting the importance of exchange rate misalignment while disregarding that of exchange rate volatility. In magnitude, exchange rate misalignments result in trade diversion quantifiable in about one per cent of world trade. This paper also shows evidence supporting the argument that trade policy is used to compensate for some of the consequences of an overvalued currency, especially with regard to anti-dumping interventions. The findings of this research carry three broad policy implications. First, policymakers need to pay attention to the exchange rates of their countries and those of other countries as the effect of currency misalignments on international trade is considerable. Second, the relative valuation of currencies can explain only a small part of global trade imbalances. Adjustments in exchange rates can be only part of the solution for global rebalancing and need to be accompanied by other policy actions. Finally, strategies to avoid the resurgence of protectionist measures should include multilateral cooperation related to the stabilization of exchange rates towards their equilibrium level.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +41 22 907 12 34
Fax: +41 22 907 00 43
Web page: http://www.unctad.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Sercu, Piet & Vanhulle, Cynthia, 1992. "Exchange rate volatility, international trade, and the value of exporting firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-182, February.
- Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
- Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Bonus vetus OLS: A simple method for approximating international trade-cost effects using the gravity equation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 77-85, February.
- Rajan, Raghuram G. & Subramanian, Arvind, 2011.
"Aid, Dutch disease, and manufacturing growth,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 106-118, January.
- Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Andrew Berg & Yanliang Miao, 2010. "The Real Exchange Rate and Growth Revisited; The Washington Consensus Strikes Back?," IMF Working Papers 10/58, International Monetary Fund.
- Oatley Thomas, 2010. "Real Exchange Rates and Trade Protectionism," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, August.
- Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996.
"Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?,"
NBER Working Papers
5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
- Marc Auboin & Michele Ruta, 2012.
"The Relationship between Exchange Rates and International Trade: A Literature Review,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
3868, CESifo Group Munich.
- Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 577-605, July.
- Karolyi, G Andrew, 1995. "A Multivariate GARCH Model of International Transmissions of Stock Returns and Volatility: The Case of the United States and Canada," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 11-25, January.
- Silvana Tenreyro, 2003.
"On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility,"
03-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
- Baldwin, Richard, 1988.
"Hyteresis in Import Prices: The Beachhead Effect,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 773-85, September.
- Douglas A. Irwin, 2005.
"The Rise of U.S. Antidumping Activity in Historical Perspective,"
IMF Working Papers
05/31, International Monetary Fund.
- Douglas A. Irwin, 2005. "The Rise of US Anti-dumping Activity in Historical Perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(5), pages 651-668, 05.
- Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
- Robert W. Staiger & Alan O. Sykes, 2008.
""Currency Manipulation" and World Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
14600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Peree, Eric & Steinherr, Alfred, 1989. "Exchange rate uncertainty and foreign trade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1241-1264, July.
- Michael W. Klein & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2004.
"Fixed Exchange Rates and Trade,"
NBER Working Papers
10696, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Baron, David P, 1976. "Flexible Exchange Rates, Forward Markets, and the Level of Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 66(3), pages 253-66, June.
- Laixun Zhao & Yuqing Xing, 2006. "Global Production and Currency Devaluation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 202-211, 05.
- Thomas Prusa & Michael Knetter, 2000.
"Macroeconomic Factors and Antidumping Filings: Evidence from Four Countries,"
Departmental Working Papers
200023, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Knetter, Michael M. & Prusa, Thomas J., 2003. "Macroeconomic factors and antidumping filings: evidence from four countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 1-17, October.
- Michael M. Knetter & Thomas J. Prusa, 2000. "Macroeconomic Factors and Antidumping Filings: Evidence from Four Countries," NBER Working Papers 8010, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Paulo Gala, 2008. "Real exchange rate levels and economic development: theoretical analysis and econometric evidence," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 32(2), pages 273-288, March.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unc:blupap:56. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Isabelle Porcu)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.