‘Currency manipulation’ and world trade
Central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets may, under some conditions, stimulate exports and retard imports. In the past few years, this issue has moved to center stage because of the foreign exchange policies of China. China has regularly intervened to prevent the RMB from appreciating relative to other currencies, and over the same period has developed large global and bilateral trade surpluses. Numerous public officials and commentators argue that China has engaged in impermissible "currency manipulation," and various proposals for stiff action against China have been advanced. This paper clarifies the theoretical relationship between exchange rate policy and international trade, and addresses the question of what content can be given to the concept of "currency manipulation" as a measure that may impair the commitments made in trade agreements. Our conclusions are at odds with much of what is currently being said by proponents of counter-measures against China. For example, it is often asserted that China's currency policies have real effects that are equivalent to an export subsidy. In fact, however, if prices are flexible the effect of exchange rate intervention parallels that of a uniform import tariff and export subsidy, which will have no real effect on trade, an implication of Lerner's symmetry theorem. With sticky prices, the real effects of exchange rate intervention and the translation of that intervention into trade-policy equivalents depend critically on how traded goods and services are priced. The real effects of China's policies are potentially quite complex, are not readily translated into trade-policy equivalents, and are dependent on the time frame over which they are evaluated (because prices are less "sticky" over a longer time frame).
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Volume (Year): 9 (2010)
Issue (Month): 04 (October)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://journals.cambridge.org/jid_WTR
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Agur Itai, 2008. "The US Trade Deficit, the Decline of the WTO and the Rise of Regionalism," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-34, September.
- Hector R. Torres, 2007. "Reforming the International Monetary Fund - Why its Legitimacy is at Stake," Journal of International Economic Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 443-460, September.
- Rogoff, Kenneth, 2006.
"Global imbalances and exchange rate adjustment,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 695-699, September.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1994.
"Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux,"
NBER Working Papers
4693, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Maurice Obstfeld and Kenneth Rogoff., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C95-048, University of California at Berkeley.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," CEPR Discussion Papers 1131, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 1995. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Redux," Scholarly Articles 12491026, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Mussa, Michael, 1974. "A Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 333-51, August.
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Yee Wong & Ketki Sheth, 2006.
"US-China Trade Disputes: Rising Tides Rising Stakes,"
Peterson Institute Press: All Books,
Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa78.
- Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Yee Wong & Ketki Sheth, 2006. "US-China Trade Disputes: Rising Tides Rising Stakes," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa78, February.
- John S. Chipman, 2007. "Protection and Exchange Rates in a Small Open Economy," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 205-216, 05.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
- Devereux, Michael B. & Shi, Kang & Xu, Juanyi, 2007.
"Global monetary policy under a dollar standard,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 113-132, March.
- Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
- Michael Mussa, 1985. "The Real Exchange Rate as a Tool of Commercial Policy," NBER Working Papers 1577, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Feenstra, Robert C, 1985. "Anticipated Devaluations, Currency Flight, and Direct Trade Controls in a Monetary Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(3), pages 386-401, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:wotrrv:v:9:y:2010:i:04:p:583-627_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Keith Waters)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.