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International Business Cycles and Exchange Rates

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Abstract

International real business cycle models are not able to account for the high volatility of imports, exports, the trade balance and the terms of trade. By introducing exogenous exchange rate movements in addition to standard technological shocks, the model presented here comes much closer to replicating the relatively high volatility observed in the data while also improving other moments. Les modèles internationaux du cycle réel ne sont pas capable de répliquer la forte volatilité des exportations, des importations, de la balance commerciale et des termes de l'échange. En introduisant des mouvements exogènes des taux de change, en plus des chocs technologiques usuels, le modè présenté ici parvient bien mieux à répliquer la relativement forte volatilité observée dans les données tout en améliorant d'autres statistiques.

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  • Christian Zimmermann, 1994. "International Business Cycles and Exchange Rates," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 33, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Jul 1997.
    • Handle: RePEc:cre:crefwp:33
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    Cited by:

    1. Engel, Charles & Wang, Jian, 2011. "International trade in durable goods: Understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elasticities," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 37-52, January.
    2. Zimmermann, Christian, 1997. "International real business cycles among heterogeneous countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 319-356, February.
    3. Christian Zimmermann, 1996. "Business Cycles and Exchange Rate Regimes," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 45, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
    4. Alan C. Stockman, 1998. "New evidence connecting exchange rates to business cycles," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 73-89.
    5. Christian Zimmermann, 1995. "International Trade over the Business Cycle: Stylized Facts and Remaining Puzzles," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 37, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal, revised Aug 1997.
    6. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2010. "On the sensitivity of the volume and volatility of bilateral trade flows to exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 79-93, February.
    7. Alejandro Justiniano, 2004. "Sources and Propagation Mechanims of Foreign Disturbances in Small Open Economies: A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 148, Econometric Society.
    8. Daniel Farhat, 2010. "Capital Accumulation, Non-traded Goods and International Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," Working Papers 1002, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised May 2010.
    9. Charles Engel & Jian Wang, 2007. "International trade in durable goods: understanding volatility, cyclicality, and elastics," Globalization Institute Working Papers 03, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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