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Volatility and Irish exports

Author

Listed:
  • Donal Bredin
  • John Cotter

Abstract

We analyse the impact of volatility per se on exports for a a small open economy concentrating on Irish trade with the UK and the US. An important element is that we take account of the time lag between the trade decision and the actual trade or payments taking place by using a flexible lag approach. Rather than adopt a single measure of risk we also adopt a spectrum of risk measures and detail varied size characteristics and statistical properties. We find that the ambiguous results found to date may well be due to not taking account of the timing effect which varies substantially depending on which volatility measure is used. However, the foreign exchange volatility effect is consistently positive, indicating the dominance of exporters expectations of possible profitable opportunities from future cash flows. The potential negative aspects of trade, the entry and exit costs, are accounted for by a negative influence of income volatility on trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Donal Bredin & John Cotter, 2004. "Volatility and Irish exports," Centre for Financial Markets Working Papers 10197/1165, Research Repository, University College Dublin.
    • Handle: RePEc:rru:cfmwps:10197/1165
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10197/1165
    File Function: First version, 2004
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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