IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effects of exchange rate uncertainty on exports


  • Rahman, Sajjadur
  • Serletis, Apostolos


We investigate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on exports in the context of a multivariate framework in which a structural open economy vector autoregression is modified to accommodate multivariate GARCH-in-Mean errors, as detailed in Elder (Elder, J., 2004. Another perspective on the effects of inflation uncertainty. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 36, 912-928). Our measure of exchange rate uncertainty is the conditional standard deviation of the forecast error of the change in the exchange rate. We isolate the effects of exchange rate uncertainty on exports and also analyze how accounting for exchange rate uncertainty affects the response of exports to exchange rate shocks. We estimate the model using aggregate monthly data for the United States, over the flexible exchange rate period (since 1973). We use full information maximum likelihood estimation procedures and find that exchange rate uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on US exports. We also find that accounting for exchange rate uncertainty tends to strengthen the dynamic response of exports to shocks in the exchange rate and that exports respond asymmetrically to positive and negative exchange rate shocks of equal magnitude.

Suggested Citation

  • Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "The effects of exchange rate uncertainty on exports," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 500-507, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:3:p:500-507

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
    2. Kenen, Peter B & Rodrik, Dani, 1986. "Measuring and Analyzing the Effects of Short-term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 68(2), pages 311-315, May.
    3. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    4. Asger Lunde & Peter R. Hansen, 2005. "A forecast comparison of volatility models: does anything beat a GARCH(1,1)?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 873-889.
    5. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
    6. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    7. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    8. De Grauwe, Paul, 1987. "International trade and economic growth in the european monetary system," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 389-398.
    9. Elder, John, 2004. "Another Perspective on the Effects of Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 911-928, October.
    10. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, April.
    11. Gagnon, Joseph E., 1993. "Exchange rate variability and the level of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3-4), pages 269-287, May.
    12. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
    13. Michel Demers, 1991. "Investment under Uncertainty, Irreversibility and the Arrival of Information Over Time," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 333-350.
    14. Viaene, Jean-Marie & de Vries, Casper G., 1992. "International trade and exchange rate volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1311-1321, August.
    15. Byrne, Joseph P. & Darby, Julia & MacDonald, Ronald, 2008. "US trade and exchange rate volatility: A real sectoral bilateral analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 238-259, March.
    16. Thursby, Jerry G & Thursby, Marie C, 1987. "Bilateral Trade Flows, the Linder Hypothesis, and Exchange Risk," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 488-495, August.
    17. Vikram Kumar, 1992. "Real effects of exchange risk on international trade," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 92-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    18. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    19. Brodsky, David A., 1984. "Fixed versus flexible exchange rates and the measurement of exchange rate instability," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3-4), pages 295-306, May.
    20. Klein, Michael W. & Shambaugh, Jay C., 2006. "Fixed exchange rates and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 359-383, December.
    21. Broll, Udo, 1994. "Foreign Production and Forward Markets," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(62), pages 1-6, June.
    22. Sims, Christopher A. & Zha, Tao, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Generate Recessions?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(02), pages 231-272, April.
    23. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    24. Franke, Gunter, 1991. "Exchange rate volatility and international trading strategy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 292-307, June.
    25. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Halmi Mirela, 2012. "The Correlation Between The Exchange Rate And The Direct Foreign Investments," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(1), pages 809-815, July.
    2. repec:khe:scajes:v:3:y:2017:i:3:p:47-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michel, 2011. "The relationship between exchange rates and International Trade: A review of economic literature," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2011-17, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    4. repec:eee:reveco:v:51:y:2017:i:c:p:417-430 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Akram Hasanov & Ahmad Baharumshah, 2014. "Exchange-Rate Risk and Exports," Problems of Economic Transition, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 80-101.
    6. repec:fis:journl:170302 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Auboin, Marc & Ruta, Michele, 2013. "The relationship between exchange rates and international trade: a literature review," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(03), pages 577-605, July.
    8. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:313-326 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kang-Soek LEE, 2010. "A Euro Peg System as an Alternative for the Chinese Exchange Rate Regime," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 165, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
    10. Mekbib Gebretsadik Haile & Geoff Pugh, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility discourage international trade? A meta-regression analysis," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(3), pages 321-350, April.
    11. Grier, Kevin B. & Smallwood, Aaron D., 2013. "Exchange rate shocks and trade: A multivariate GARCH-M approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 282-305.
    12. Andrew Ojede, 2015. "Exchange Rate Shocks and U.S. Services and Agricultural Exports: Which Export Sector is More Affected?," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 228-250, August.
    13. BAHMANI-OSKOOEE, Mohsen & HALICIOGLU, Ferda & Neumann, Rebecca, 2016. "Domestic Investment Responses to Changes in the Real Exchange Rate: Asymmetries of Appreciation versus Depreciation," MPRA Paper 82941, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Apr 2016.


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:31:y:2009:i:3:p:500-507. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.