IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/emeeco/v15y2023i3p449-472.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Disentangling the Nexus Between Exchange Rate Volatility, Exports, and FDI: Empirical Evidence from the Indian Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Aamir Jamal
  • G. M. Bhat

Abstract

The primary objective of the study was to scrutinize the effect of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Indian exports during the flexible exchange rate period. The bounds testing procedure confirmed the presence of a single (stable) long-run relationship between exports, conditional exchange rate volatility, and unconditional exchange rate volatility. The autoregressive distributed lag model verified that volatility in Indian rupee vis-à -vis USD had a significant (negative) impact on Indian exports and FDI inflows. Besides, trade openness and gross domestic product, in the long run, were positive and significant in explaining the exports and FDI inflows. Based on the empirical results, India should devise suitable macroeconomic policies to reduce exchange rate volatility to make the export-led growth strategy a success. Moreover, emerging and progressive economies like India should strengthen and streamline their domestic foreign exchange markets without compromising the level of trade openness. More precisely, the forward exchange markets’ coverage should be broadened, as they provide protection (hedging) against the exchange rate volatility in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Aamir Jamal & G. M. Bhat, 2023. "Disentangling the Nexus Between Exchange Rate Volatility, Exports, and FDI: Empirical Evidence from the Indian Economy," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 15(3), pages 449-472, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:449-472
    DOI: 10.1177/09749101221108788
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/09749101221108788
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/09749101221108788?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
    2. Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Nicolas E Magud & Juan Yepez, 2018. "No Pain, All Gain? Exchange Rate Flexibility and the Expenditure-Switching Effect," IMF Working Papers 2018/213, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Berke, Burcu & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Exchange rate volatility in the eurozone," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-23.
    4. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
    5. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    6. Udo Broil & Bernhard Eckwert, 1999. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(1), pages 178-185, July.
    7. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Emerging equity market volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 29-77, January.
    8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    9. Lenkei, Balint & Mustafa, Ghulam & Vecchi, Michela, 2018. "Growth in emerging economies: Is there a role for education?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 240-253.
    10. Hooy, Chee-Wooi & Choong, Chee-Keong, 2010. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on World and Intra-trade Flows of SAARC Countries," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 45(1), pages 67-86.
    11. Mumtaz Hussain Shah & Yahya Khan, 2016. "Trade Liberalisation and FDI Inflows in Emerging Economies," Business & Economic Review, Institute of Management Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan, vol. 8(1), pages 35-52, April.
    12. Marilyne Huchet & J. Korinek, 2011. "To what extent do exchange rates and their volatility affect trade ?," Post-Print hal-00729403, HAL.
    13. Marek A. Dabrowski & Justyna Wróblewska, 2020. "Insulating property of the flexible exchange rate regime: A case of Central and Eastern European countries," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 162, pages 34-49.
    14. Paul De Grauwe, 1988. "Exchange Rate Variability and the Slowdown in Growth of International Trade," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 35(1), pages 63-84, March.
    15. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    16. Balassa, Bela, 1986. "Intra-Industry specialization : A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 27-42, February.
    17. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 1979-1990.
    18. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Giovannini, Alberto, 1990. "Monetary policy in the open economy," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1231-1303, Elsevier.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    20. Udo Broll & Bernhard Eckwert, 1999. "Exchange Rate Volatility and International Trade," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 66(1), pages 178-185, July.
    21. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    22. Ajaya Kumar Panda & Swagatika Nanda & Vipul Kumar Singh & Satish Kumar, 2018. "Evidence of leverage effects and volatility spillover among exchange rates of selected emerging and growth leading economies," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 11(2), pages 174-192, November.
    23. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    24. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    25. Emeka Nkoro & Aham Kelvin Uko, 2016. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique: application and interpretation," Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 5(4), pages 1-3.
    26. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-348, August.
    27. Peter B. Clark, 1973. "Uncertainty, Exchange Risk, And The Level Of International Trade," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 11(3), pages 302-313, September.
    28. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
    29. Goldberg, Linda S & Kolstad, Charles D, 1995. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate Variability and Demand Uncertainty," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(4), pages 855-873, November.
    30. Flavio Vilela Vieira & Ronald MacDonald, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and exports: a panel data analysis," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(2), pages 203-221, May.
    31. Arize, A. C., 1997. "Foreign trade and exchange-rate risk in the G-7 countries: Cointegration and error-correction models," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-112.
    32. Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Growth in Emerging Europe and East Asia," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(4), pages 565-587, September.
    33. Avner Wolf, 1995. "Import and hedging uncertainty in international trade," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(2), pages 101-110, April.
    34. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    35. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October.
    36. Jorge Carrera & Guillermo Vuletin, 2013. "The Effects Of Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes On Real Exchange Rate Volatility: Evidence Based On A New Dataset," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 31(1), pages 212-234, January.
    37. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2007. "Exchange rate volatility and trade flows: a review article," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 34(3), pages 211-255, August.
    38. A.C. Arize, 1997. "Foreign trade and exchange‐rate risk in the G‐7 countries: Cointegration and error‐correction models," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 6(1), pages 95-112.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Erdal Demirhan & Banu Demirhan, 2015. "The Dynamic Effect of ExchangeRate Volatility on Turkish Exports: Parsimonious Error-Correction Model Approach," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(4), pages 429-451, September.
    2. Yusaku Nishimura & Bianxia Sun, 2018. "China’s Exchange-Rate Regime Reform and Trade Between China and the Eurozone," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(2), pages 450-467, January.
    3. Naseeem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui & Mohd, Siti, 2010. "Exchange Rate Regime, Exchange Rate Variability and Flows of Malaysia’s Foreign Trade," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 44, pages 35-49.
    4. Nicas Yabu & Deogratius Kimolo, 2020. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Its Implications on Macroeconomic Variables in East African Countries," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 7(3), pages 145-171, May.
    5. Viviane Naimy & Rim El Khoury & José-María Montero & Jana Souk, 2023. "Post-Brexit exchange rate volatility and its impact on UK exports to eurozone countries: A bounds testing approach," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 14(1), pages 135-168, March.
    6. Choudhry, Taufiq, 2005. "Exchange rate volatility and the United States exports: evidence from Canada and Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 51-71, March.
    7. Nishimura, Yusaku & Hirayama, Kenjiro, 2013. "Does exchange rate volatility deter Japan-China trade? Evidence from pre- and post-exchange rate reform in China," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25, pages 90-101.
    8. Fang, WenShwo & Lai, YiHao & Miller, Stephen M., 2009. "Does exchange rate risk affect exports asymmetrically? Asian evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 215-239, March.
    9. Cueyt SEVIM & Taylan Taner DOGAN, 2016. "Turkiye Ekonomisinde Ihracat ve Doviz Kuru Oynakligi Iliskisi," Ege Academic Review, Ege University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 16(2), pages 303-318.
    10. Naseem, N.A.M & Tan, Hui-Boon & Hamizah, M.S, 2008. "Exchange Rate Misalignment, Volatility and Import Flows in Malaysia," MPRA Paper 41571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Muhammad Aftab & Karim Bux Shah Syed & Naveed Akhter Katper, 2017. "Exchange-rate volatility and Malaysian-Thai bilateral industry trade flows," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 44(1), pages 99-114, January.
    12. Jonathan M. Chipili, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows in Zambia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 55-66, March.
    13. James Temitope Dada, 2020. "Asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on trade in sub-Saharan African countries," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(2), pages 149-162, July.
    14. Gormus, Alper & Nazlioglu, Saban & Soytas, Ugur, 2018. "High-yield bond and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 101-110.
    15. WenShwo Fang & Stephen Miller, 2007. "Exchange rate depreciation and exports: the case of Singapore revisited," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 273-277.
    16. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Masatci, Kaan & Pılbeam, Keith, 2016. "Exchange rate volatility and international trade: International evidence from the MINT countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 133-140.
    17. Anmar Pretorius & Heinrich Nel, 2018. "Disentangling the exchange rate risk, sectoral export flows and financial development nexus," Working Papers 733, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    18. Pedro Hugo Clavijo Cortes, 2017. "Balance comercial y volatilidad del tipo de cambio nominal: Un estudio de series de tiempo para Colombia," Revista Economía y Región, Universidad Tecnológica de Bolívar, vol. 11(1), pages 37-58, June.
    19. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Policy: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization?," Working papers 2005-07, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    20. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Berke, Burcu & McMillan, David G., 2020. "Exchange rate volatility in the eurozone," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 14, pages 1-23.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:emeeco:v:15:y:2023:i:3:p:449-472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.emergingmarketsforum.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.