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Maximum Likelihood and the Bootstrap for Nonlinear Dynamic Models

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  • Goncalves, Silvia
  • White, Halbert

Abstract

We provide a unified framework for analyzing bootstrapped extremum estimators of nonlinear dynamic models for heterogeneous dependent stochastic processes. We apply our results to the moving blocks bootstrap of Kunsch (1989) and Liu and Singh (1992) and prove the first order asymptotic validity of the bootstrap approximation to the true distribution of quasi-maximum likelihood estimators. We also consider bootstrap testing. In particular, we prove the first order asymptotic validity of the bootstrap distribution of suitable bootstrap analogs of Wald and Lagrange Multiplier statistics for testing hypotheses.

Suggested Citation

  • Goncalves, Silvia & White, Halbert, 2002. "Maximum Likelihood and the Bootstrap for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8hx21540, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt8hx21540
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gonçalves, Sílvia & White, Halbert, 2002. "The Bootstrap Of The Mean For Dependent Heterogeneous Arrays," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(6), pages 1367-1384, December.
    2. Fitzenberger, Bernd, 1998. "The moving blocks bootstrap and robust inference for linear least squares and quantile regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 235-287, February.
    3. Inoue, Atsushi & Shintani, Mototsugu, 2006. "Bootstrapping GMM estimators for time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 531-555, August.
    4. Hall, Peter & Horowitz, Joel L, 1996. "Bootstrap Critical Values for Tests Based on Generalized-Method-of-Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 891-916, July.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    6. Hahn, Jinyong, 1996. "A Note on Bootstrapping Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 12(1), pages 187-197, March.
    7. Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G, 1999. "Bootstrap Testing in Nonlinear Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 40(2), pages 487-508, May.
    8. Shao, Jun, 1992. "Bootstrap variance estimators with truncation," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 95-101, September.
    9. Lahiri, Soumendra Nath, 1996. "On Edgeworth Expansion and Moving Block Bootstrap for StudentizedM-Estimators in Multiple Linear Regression Models," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 42-59, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2005. "Bootstrap specification tests for diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 117-148, January.
    2. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2003. "A Test for Comparing Multiple Misspecified Conditional Distributions," Departmental Working Papers 200314, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    3. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2007. "Evaluation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models based on distributional comparison of simulated and historical data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 699-723, February.
    4. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Bootstrap conditional distribution tests in the presence of dynamic misspecification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 779-806, August.
    5. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2003. "The Block Bootstrap for Parameter Estimation Error In Recursive Estimation Schemes, With Applications to Predictive Evaluation," Departmental Working Papers 200313, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    6. Peter Malec, 2016. "A Semiparametric Intraday GARCH Model," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1633, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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