IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/eurjfi/v16y2010i6p503-525.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Utility-based pricing of weather derivatives

Author

Listed:
  • Helene Hamisultane

Abstract

Since the underlying of the weather derivatives is not a traded asset, these contracts cannot be evaluated by the traditional financial theory. Cao and Wei [2004. Weather derivatives valuation and market price of weather risk. The Journal of Futures Markets 24, no. 11: 1065-89] price them by using the consumption-based asset pricing model of Lucas [1978. Asset prices in an exchange economy. Econometrica 46, no. 6: 1429-45] and by assuming different values for the constant relative risk aversion coefficient. Instead of taking this coefficient as given, we suggest in this article to estimate it by using the consumption data and the quotations of one of the most transacted weather contracts which is the New York weather futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. We apply the well-known generalized method of moments introduced by Hansen [1982. Large sample properties of generalized method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, no. 4: 1029-54] to estimate it as well as the simulated method of moments (SMM) attributed to Lee and Ingram [1991. Simulation estimation of time-series models. Journal of Econometrics 47, no. 2-3: 197-205] and Duffie and Singleton [1993. Simulated moments estimation of Markov models of asset prices. Econometrica 61, no. 4: 929-52]. This last method is studied since it is presumed to give satisfactory results in the case of the weather derivatives for which the prices are simulated. We find that the estimated coefficient from the SMM approach must have improbably high values in order to have the calculated weather futures prices matching the observations.

Suggested Citation

  • Helene Hamisultane, 2010. "Utility-based pricing of weather derivatives," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 503-525.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:16:y:2010:i:6:p:503-525
    DOI: 10.1080/13518470902853392
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13518470902853392
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13518470902853392?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Constantinides, George M & Duffie, Darrell, 1996. "Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Consumers," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(2), pages 219-240, April.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    3. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ingram, Beth Fisher, 1991. "Simulation estimation of time-series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2-3), pages 197-205, February.
    4. Richards, Timothy J. & Manfredo, Mark R. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," Working Papers 28536, Arizona State University, Morrison School of Agribusiness and Resource Management.
    5. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Zeldes, Stephen P., 1991. "The consumption of stockholders and nonstockholders," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 97-112, March.
    6. Ferson, Wayne E. & Constantinides, George M., 1991. "Habit persistence and durability in aggregate consumption: Empirical tests," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 199-240, October.
    7. Sean D. Campbell & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Weather Forecasting for Weather Derivatives," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 100, pages 6-16, March.
    8. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1993. "Simulated Moments Estimation of Markov Models of Asset Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 929-952, July.
    9. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1994. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(4), pages 631-653.
    10. Dwight R. Sanders, 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1005-1017.
    11. Newey, Whitney & West, Kenneth, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    12. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
    13. Hansen, Lars Peter & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1982. "Generalized Instrumental Variables Estimation of Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(5), pages 1269-1286, September.
    14. Fred Espen Benth & Jurate Saltyte-Benth, 2005. "Stochastic Modelling of Temperature Variations with a View Towards Weather Derivatives," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 53-85.
    15. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-858, May.
    16. Lund, Jesper & Engsted, Tom, 1996. "GMM and present value tests of the C-CAPM: evidence from the Danish, German, Swedish and UK stock markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 497-521, August.
    17. Rajnish Mehra, 2003. "The Equity Premium: Why is it a Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9512, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Melanie Cao & Jason Wei, 2004. "Weather derivatives valuation and market price of weather risk," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(11), pages 1065-1089, November.
    19. Andrews, Donald W K & Monahan, J Christopher, 1992. "An Improved Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 953-966, July.
    20. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    21. Hélène Hamisultane, 2006. "Pricing the Weather Derivatives in the Presence of Long Memory in Temperatures," Working Papers halshs-00079197, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rui Zhou & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Jeffrey Pai, 2019. "Pricing temperature derivatives with a filtered historical simulation approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(15), pages 1462-1484, October.
    2. Dorfleitner, Gregor & Wimmer, Maximilian, 2010. "The pricing of temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1360-1370, June.
    3. Hélène Hamisultane, 2008. "Which Method for Pricing Weather Derivatives ?," Working Papers halshs-00355856, HAL.
    4. Gülpınar, Nalân & Çanakoḡlu, Ethem, 2017. "Robust portfolio selection problem under temperature uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 500-523.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kris Jacobs, 2001. "Estimating Nonseparable Preference Specifications for Asset Market Participants," CIRANO Working Papers 2001s-12, CIRANO.
    2. Kris Jacobs, 2002. "The Rate of Risk Aversion May Be Lower Than You Think," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-08, CIRANO.
    3. Wayne E. Ferson & Ravi Jagannathan, 1996. "Econometric evaluation of asset pricing models," Staff Report 206, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    4. Ramdan Dridi, 2000. "Simulated Asymptotic Least Squares Theory," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 396, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    5. Mardi Dungey & Vitali Alexeev & Jing Tian & Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91, pages 1-24, June.
    6. Alastair R. Hall, 2015. "Econometricians Have Their Moments: GMM at 32," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(S1), pages 1-24, June.
    7. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    8. Ludvigson, Sydney C., 2013. "Advances in Consumption-Based Asset Pricing: Empirical Tests," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 799-906, Elsevier.
    9. Kris Jacobs & Kevin Q. Wang, 2002. "Idiosyncratic Consumption Risk and the Cross-Section of Asset Returns," CIRANO Working Papers 2002s-11, CIRANO.
    10. Dridi, Ramdan, 2000. "Simulated asymptotic least squares theory," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6861, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2005:i:10:p:1-13 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Keunbae Ahn, 2021. "Predictable Fluctuations in the Cross-Section and Time-Series of Asset Prices," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2021.
    13. Elena Márquez de la Cruz, 2005. "La elasticidad de sustitución intertemporal y el consumo duradero: un análisis para el caso español," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 29(3), pages 455-481, September.
    14. Hansen, Lars Peter & Heaton, John & Luttmer, Erzo G J, 1995. "Econometric Evaluation of Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(2), pages 237-274.
    15. Rui Zhou & Johnny Siu-Hang Li & Jeffrey Pai, 2019. "Pricing temperature derivatives with a filtered historical simulation approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(15), pages 1462-1484, October.
    16. Ashley Lim & Yihui Lan & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2020. "Asset pricing and energy consumption risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3813-3850, December.
    17. Hirukawa, Masayuki, 2023. "Robust Covariance Matrix Estimation in Time Series: A Review," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 36-61.
    18. Peter Smith & Michael Wickens, 2002. "Asset Pricing with Observable Stochastic Discount Factors," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 397-446, July.
    19. Hélène Hamisultane, 2008. "Which Method for Pricing Weather Derivatives ?," Working Papers halshs-00355856, HAL.
    20. Issler, João Victor & Piqueira, Natália Scotto, 2000. "Estimando a Aversão ao Risco, a Taxa de Desconto Intertemporal, e a Substutibilidade Intertemporal do Consumo no Brasil usando Três tipos de Função Utilidade (Versão Preliminar)," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 387, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    21. Issler, João Victor & Soares, Ana Flávia, 2019. "Central Bank credibility and inflation expectations: a microfounded forecasting approach," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 812, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:16:y:2010:i:6:p:503-525. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/REJF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.