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Pricing the Weather Derivatives in the Presence of Long Memory in Temperatures

  • Hélène Hamisultane


    (EconomiX - CNRS - UP10 - Université Paris 10, Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense)

Weather derivatives are financial contracts for which the underlying is not a traded asset. Therefore, they cannot be priced by the traditional financial theory based on the hedging portfolio and on the arbitrage-free argument. Some authors suggest to use the actuarial pricing approach to value the weather derivatives. But this method suffers from the fact that it is only based on the modelling of the temperature. The market information is not necessary to value the weather derivatives by this approach. On the contrary, the financial method needs to infer the market price of weather risk since the market is incomplete for the weather derivatives. We suggest in this paper to compute and to compare the prices stemming from the both approaches by using the New York weather futures quotations. Prices are calculated on the basis that the daily average temperature has a long memory since tests reveal its presence in the serie.

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Paper provided by HAL in its series Working Papers with number halshs-00079197.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:halshs-00079197
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  1. Eckhard Platen & Jason West, 2004. "A Fair Pricing Approach to Weather Derivatives," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 23-53, March.
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  9. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  10. Hélène Hamisultane, 2007. "Extracting Information from the Market to Price the Weather Derivatives," Working Papers halshs-00079192, HAL.
  11. Fred Espen Benth, 2003. "On arbitrage-free pricing of weather derivatives based on fractional Brownian motion," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(4), pages 303-324.
  12. Deo, Rohit S. & Hurvich, Clifford M., 2001. "On The Log Periodogram Regression Estimator Of The Memory Parameter In Long Memory Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 686-710, August.
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