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Pricing Weather Derivatives

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  • Dwight R. Sanders

Abstract

This article presents a general method for pricing weather derivatives. Specification tests find that a temperature series for Fresno, CA follows a mean-reverting Brownian motion process with discrete jumps and autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic errors. Based on this process, we define an equilibrium pricing model for cooling degree day weather options. Comparing option prices estimated with three methods: a traditional burn-rate approach, a Black-Scholes-Merton approximation, and an equilibrium Monte Carlo simulation reveals significant differences. Equilibrium prices are preferred on theoretical grounds, so are used to demonstrate the usefulness of weather derivatives as risk management tools for California specialty crop growers. Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Dwight R. Sanders, 2004. "Pricing Weather Derivatives," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 86(4), pages 1005-1017.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:86:y:2004:i:4:p:1005-1017
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/j.0002-9092.2004.00649.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Turvey, Calum G. & Norton, Michael T., 2008. "An Internet-Based Tool for Weather Risk Management," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(1), April.
    2. Wei Yuan & Ahmet Göncü & Giray Ökten, 2015. "Estimating sensitivities of temperature-based weather derivatives," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(19), pages 1942-1955, April.
    3. Bertrand, Jean-Louis & Brusset, Xavier & Fortin, Maxime, 2015. "Assessing and hedging the cost of unseasonal weather: Case of the apparel sector," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 244(1), pages 261-276.
    4. Lee, Yongheon & Oren, Shmuel S., 2009. "An equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 702-713, September.
    5. Turvey, Calum G. & Chantarat, Sommarat, 2006. "Weather-Linked Bonds," Proceedings: 2006 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, October 2-3, 2006; Washington, DC 133091, Regional Research Committee NC-1014: Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition.
    6. Zhang, Li, 2008. "Three essays on agricultural risk and insurance," ISU General Staff Papers 2008010108000016857, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    7. Raimova, Gulnora, 2011. "Variance reduction methods at the pricing of weather options," Applied Econometrics, Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 21(1), pages 3-15.
    8. Groll, Andreas & López-Cabrera, Brenda & Meyer-Brandis, Thilo, 2016. "A consistent two-factor model for pricing temperature derivatives," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 112-126.
    9. Ahmet Göncü, 2013. "Comparison of temperature models using heating and cooling degree days futures," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 14(2), pages 159-178, February.
    10. van Kooten, G Cornelis & Guo, Changhao & Sun, Baojing, 2015. "Risking-sharing Efficiency of Hedging Strategies," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205756, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association;Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    11. Chung, Wonho, 2013. "Reducing the Social Cost of Federal Crop Insurance: A Role for US Government Hedging with Weather Derivatives," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 36(2), August.
    12. Mußhoff, Oliver & Grüner, Sven & Hirschauer, Norbert, 2014. "Muss man begrenzte Rationalität und heuristisches Entscheiden bei der Erklärung für die Verbreitung von Wetterindexversicherungen in der Landwirtschaft berücksichtigen? – Eine Untersuchung auf d," Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, Journal of International Agricultural Trade and Development, vol. 63(2).
    13. Musshoff, Oliver & Odening, Martin & Xu, Wei, 2005. "Zur Reduzierung niederschlagsbedingter Produktionsrisiken mit Wetterderivaten," Working Paper Series 18822, Humboldt University Berlin, Department Agricultural Economics.
    14. Fred Benth & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Brenda López Cabrera, 2009. "Pricing of Asian temperature risk," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-046, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    15. L. Kermiche & N. Vuillermet, 2016. "Weather derivatives structuring and pricing: a sustainable agricultural approach in Africa," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 165-177, January.
    16. A. Alexandridis & A. Zapranis, 2013. "Wind Derivatives: Modeling and Pricing," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 41(3), pages 299-326, March.
    17. Rong Kong & Calum G. Turvey & Guangwen He & Jiujie Ma & Patrick Meagher, 2011. "Factors influencing Shaanxi and Gansu farmers' willingness to purchase weather insurance," China Agricultural Economic Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(4), pages 423-440, November.
    18. Markus Stowasser, 2011. "Modelling rain risk: a multi-order Markov chain model approach," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, December.
    19. Javier Orlando Pantoja Robayo & Andrea Roncoroni, 2012. "Optimal Static Hedging of Energy Price and Volume Risk: Closed-Form Results," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO CIEF 010668, UNIVERSIDAD EAFIT.
    20. Leif Erec Heimfarth & Oliver Musshoff, 2011. "Weather index-based insurances for farmers in the North China Plain: An analysis of risk reduction potential and basis risk," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 71(2), pages 218-239, August.
    21. Nadolnyak, Denis A. & Hartarska, Valentina M., 2009. "Weather, Climate, and Agricultural Disaster Payments in the Southeastern U.S," 2009 Conference, August 16-22, 2009, Beijing, China 51802, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    22. Kern, Jordan D. & Characklis, Gregory W., 2017. "Low natural gas prices and the financial cost of ramp rate restrictions at hydroelectric dams," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 340-350.
    23. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.

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