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On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations

Author

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  • Camille Cornand

    (Univ Lyon, CNRS, GATE UMR 5824, F69130 Ecully, France)

  • Paul Hubert

    (Sciences Po-OFCE, 10 place de Catalogne, 75014 Paris, France)

Abstract

Establishing the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts is essential if laboratory experiments are to be used as decision-making tools for monetary policy. Our contribution is to document whether different measures of inflation expectations, based on various categories of agents (participants in experiments, households, industry forecasters, professional forecasters, financial market participants and central bankers), share common patterns. We do so by analysing the forecasting performance of these different categories of data, their deviations from full information rational expectations, and the variables that enter the determination of these expectations. Overall, the different categories of forecasts exhibit common features: forecast errors are comparably large and autocorrelated, and forecast errors and forecast revisions are predictable from past information, suggesting the presence of some form of bounded rationality or information imperfections. Finally, lagged inflation positively affects the determination of inflation expectations. While experimental forecasts are relatively comparable to survey and financial market data, more heterogeneity is observed compared to central bank forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2018. "On the external validity of experimental inflation forecasts: A comparison with five categories of field expectations," Working Papers 1821, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  • Handle: RePEc:gat:wpaper:1821
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    6. Fatemeh Mokhtarzadeh & Luba Petersen, 2021. "Coordinating expectations through central bank projections," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 24(3), pages 883-918, September.
    7. Madeira, Carlos, 2020. "Learning your own ability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Bertasiute, Akvile & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2020. "The behavioral economics of currency unions: Economic integration and monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    9. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers halshs-03351632, HAL.
    10. Ryan Rholes & Luba Petersen, 2020. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Discussion Papers dp20-01, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    11. Aleksandra Rutkowska & Magdalena Szyszko, 2022. "New DTW Windows Type for Forward- and Backward-Lookingness Examination. Application for Inflation Expectation," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 59(2), pages 701-718, February.
    12. John Duffy, 2022. "Why macroeconomics needs experimental evidence," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 73(1), pages 5-29, January.
    13. Salle, Isabelle, 2022. "Comment on “No firm is an island? How industry conditions shape firms’ expectations” by Philippe Andrade, Olivier Coibion, Erwan Gautier and Yuriy Gorodnichenko," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 57-61.
    14. Hommes, Cars & Massaro, Domenico & Weber, Matthias, 2019. "Monetary policy under behavioral expectations: Theory and experiment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 193-212.
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    16. Camille Cornand & Paul Hubert, 2021. "Information frictions in inflation expectations among five types of economic agents," Working Papers hal-03468918, HAL.
    17. Rholes, Ryan & Petersen, Luba, 2021. "Should central banks communicate uncertainty in their projections?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 320-341.
    18. Cornand, Camille & Hubert, Paul, 2022. "Information frictions across various types of inflation expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. Emilian DOBRESCU, 2020. "Self-fulfillment degree of economic expectations within an integrated space: The European Union case study," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 5-32, December.
    20. Petersen, Luba & Rholes, Ryan, 2022. "Macroeconomic expectations, central bank communication, and background uncertainty: A COVID-19 laboratory experiment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    21. Alfarano, Simone & Camacho-Cuena, Eva & Colasante, Annarita & Ruiz-Buforn, Alba, 2022. "The effect of time-varying fundamentals in Learning-to-Forecast Experiments," MPRA Paper 113086, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation expectations; experimental forecasts; survey forecasts; market-based forecasts; central bank forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E7 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macro-Based Behavioral Economics

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