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Estimating Information Rigidity using Firms’ Survey Data

  • Carrera, César

    (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú)

The slope of the sticky information Phillips curve proposed by Mankiw and Reis (2002) is based on the degree of information rigidity on the part of firms. Carroll (2003) uses an epidemiology model of expectations and finds evidence for the U.S. of a one-year lag in the transmission of information from professional forecasters to households. Using financial institutions‟ and firms‟ survey data from Peru and the model proposed by Carroll, I estimate the degree of information rigidity for the Peruvian economy. This paper also considers heterogeneous responses and explores the cross-sectional dimension of these survey forecasts. I find that the degree of information stickiness is such that it takes between one and three quarters for updating information, a result that is robust to different specifications.

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Paper provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its series Working Papers with number 2012-004.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2012-004
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  1. Jörg Döpke & Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche & Jiri Slacalek, 2006. "Sticky Information Phillips Curves: European Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 615, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers 2008-56, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  3. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 2111, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Lanne, Markku & Luoma, Arto & Luoto, Jani, 2009. "A naïve sticky information model of households' inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1332-1344, June.
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Augusto Marc Rocha Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2004. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm391, Yale School of Management.
  6. Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(1), pages 113-134, 02.
  7. Reis, Ricardo, 2005. "Inattentive Consumers," CEPR Discussion Papers 5053, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Easaw, Joshy Z. & Ghoshray, Atanu, 2006. "Agent-Based Learning in 'Islands' with 'Sticky Information': An Explanation for the Persistence of Real Effects," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 263-268, February.
  9. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Reis, Ricardo, 2010. "Imperfect Information and Aggregate Supply," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 5, pages 183-229 Elsevier.
  10. Khan, Hashmat & Zhu, Zhenhua, 2006. "Estimates of the Sticky-Information Phillips Curve for the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(1), pages 195-207, February.
  11. Doepke Joerg & Dovern Jonas & Fritsche Ulrich & Slacalek Jiri, 2008. "The Dynamics of European Inflation Expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, March.
  12. Ricardo Reis, 2005. "Inattentive Producers," 2005 Meeting Papers 290, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz & Kiraz, Fatma Burcu, 2006. "Do actions speak louder than words? Household expectations of inflation based on micro consumption data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2006,26, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  14. Christopher D Carroll, 2002. "Macroeconomic Expectations of Households and Professional Forecasters," Economics Working Paper Archive 477, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  15. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2006. "Pervasive Stickiness (Expanded Version)," NBER Working Papers 12024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Ricardo Nunes, 2005. "Learning the inflation target," Macroeconomics 0504033, EconWPA, revised 26 Apr 2005.
  17. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  18. Michael T. Kiley, 2006. "A quantitative comparison of sticky-price and sticky-information models of price setting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  19. Castillo, Paul & Montoro, Carlos & Tuesta, Vicente, 2007. "Hechos estilizados de la economía peruana," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 14, pages 33-75.
  20. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2007. "Sticky Information in General Equilibrium," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(2-3), pages 603-613, 04-05.
  21. Ricardo Nunes, 2009. "On the Epidemiological Microfoundations of Sticky Information," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 643-657, October.
  22. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2010. "What can survey forecasts tell us about informational rigidities?," 2010 Meeting Papers 277, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  23. Carl E. Walsh, 2010. "Monetary Theory and Policy, Third Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 3, volume 1, number 0262013770, June.
  24. Olivier Coibion, 2010. "Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 87-101, February.
  25. Fushang Liu & Kajal Lahiri, 2006. "Modelling multi-period inflation uncertainty using a panel of density forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1199-1219.
  26. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," IMF Working Papers 12/296, International Monetary Fund.
  27. Branch, William A., 2007. "Sticky information and model uncertainty in survey data on inflation expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 245-276, January.
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