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Hechos estilizados de la economía peruana

  • Castillo, Paul
  • Montoro, Carlos
  • Tuesta, Vicente

Este trabajo contribuye a la discusión de políticas macroeconómicas para la economía peruana, reportando un conjunto amplio de hechos estilizados para el periodo 1980-2005. La documentación de esto hechos permitirá una mayor comprensión de las características distintivas de Perú y por tanto servirá como herramienta de evaluación de modelos de comportamiento para la economía peruana. Los resultados de este trabajo se resumen a continuación: primero, se verifica un cambio importante en la estructura de la economía peruana en los 90's respecto a los 80's. En particular, en los 90's se observa una mayor apertura comercial y financiera, una mayor estabilidad de las políticas fiscal y monetaria, y una mayor profundización de los mercados financieros. Segundo, a raíz del cambio en la estructura y de la adopción del régimen monetario de metas explícitas de inflación en el año 2002, el comportamiento cíclico de las principales variables macroeconómicas ha cambiado significativamente. En particular, en comparación con el periodo previo (1980-1993), durante el último periodo (1994-2005) se observa: una considerable reducción en la volatilidad del producto (casi 4 veces) y de sus principales componentes, una mayor asociación de los términos de intercambio con el ciclo económico, una política fiscal menos pro-cíclica, y a partir del 2002, una mayor importancia de las tasas de interés en la evolución tanto del ciclo económico como de la inflación.

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File URL: http://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Revista-Estudios-Economicos/14/Estudios-Economicos-14-2.pdf
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Article provided by Banco Central de Reserva del Perú in its journal Revista Estudios Económicos.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): 14 ()
Pages: 33-75

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Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-14-02
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  1. Kenneth Rogoff & William Brainard & George Perry, . "Global Current Account Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustments," Working Paper 33687, Harvard University OpenScholar.
  2. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Mark Aguiar & Gita Gopinath, 2007. "Emerging Market Business Cycles: The Cycle Is the Trend," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115, pages 69-102.
  4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
  5. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2004. "The Transfer Problem Revisited: Net Foreign Assets and Real Exchange Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 841-857, November.
  6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999. "The Band pass filter," Working Paper 9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
  7. Chang, Roberto & Kaltani, Linda & Loayza, Norman V., 2009. "Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49, September.
  8. Rabanal, Pau & Tuesta Reátegui, Vicente, 2006. "Euro-Dollar Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in an Estimated Two-Country Model: What is Important and What is Not," CEPR Discussion Papers 5957, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. V. V Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Can Sticky Price Models Generate Volatile and Persistent Real Exchange Rates?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 533-563.
  10. Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Theory ahead of business-cycle measurement," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 11-44, January.
  11. Paul Castillo & Carlos Montoro & Vicente Tuesta, 2013. "An Estimated Stochastic General Equilibrium Model with Partial Dollarization: A Bayesian Approach," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(2), pages 217-265, April.
  12. Thomas Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2005. "A Bayesian Look at New Open Economy Macroeconomics," Economics Working Paper Archive 521, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  13. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-37, February.
  14. Gonzalo Llosa & Vicente Tuesta & Marco Vega, 2006. "A BVAR Forecasting Model for Peruvian Inflation," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 117-141, July-Dece.
  15. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April.
  16. Fagan, Gabriel & Henry, Jérôme & Mestre, Ricardo, 2001. "An area-wide model (AWM) for the euro area," Working Paper Series 0042, European Central Bank.
  17. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2005. "Policy Volatility, Institutions and Economic Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 5388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. C. John McDermott & Eswar Prasad & Pierre-Richard Agénor, 1999. "Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Developing Countries; Some Stylized Facts," IMF Working Papers 99/35, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Luque, Javier & Vega, Marco, 2003. "Usando un modelo semi-estructural de pequeña escala para hacer proyecciones: Algunas consideraciones," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 10.
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